thursday was rough but could’ve been way worse.
what happened #
thursday 6/8:
- TLT put spread: -$315 (stopped during bond market dump)
- account: $341,720 → $341,405
lost $315 on one trade. sucks but manageable.
the real story #
vol detection blocked THREE other positions i was planning to enter.
blocked trades:
- SPX put spread (would’ve stopped: -$340)
- IWM call spread (would’ve stopped: -$285)
- QQQ put spread (would’ve stopped: -$390)
system flagged: “elevated vol regime, scaling back entries”
the math #
actual day:
- 1 loss: -$315
- 3 blocked trades (saved): +$1,015
without vol detection:
- 4 losses: -$1,330
system saved me ~$1,015 by keeping me out of shit market conditions.
why TLT still traded #
TLT had lowest correlation (0.12) to SPX.
vol detection doesn’t block 100% of trades during elevated vol.
it blocks high-beta, high-correlation trades.
TLT was low correlation but still lost. markets don’t give a fuck about correlation sometimes.
lessons #
1. systems aren’t perfect
vol detection saves money overall but doesn’t prevent every loss.
that’s fine. goal is reduce drawdowns not eliminate losses.
2. trust the process
lost $315 today but saved $1,015.
net positive: +$700 avoided losses.
3. position sizing still matters
max loss was $315 (1.25% risk).
if i was using portfolio margin (9x employ from IB offer), could’ve been $2,835 loss.
glad i turned that shit down.
june update #
goal: +$3,000 progress: +$465 ($780 week 1, -$315 thursday) remaining: +$2,535 in 2.5 weeks
still on track. need ~$845/week.
what’s next #
continue with vol detection.
wait for regime to normalize before adding positions.
already have alert set for monday morning: check vol levels before opening.
2:38am friday. one loss hurts less when you know the system blocked three more. staying patient.
-AK