cut position sizes in half. only trading 3 strategies now.
first day of may went… fine? +$180 on one trade. nothing else triggered.
new risk rules #
old position sizing: 2.5% risk per trade = $850 max loss (on $340k account)
new position sizing: 1.25% risk per trade = $425 max loss
yeah it’s conservative AF but i need to extend runway. at old burn rate ($15k/month) i’d be broke by november. new sizing should cut that to ~$7k/month if strategies still suck.
the 3 strategies i’m keeping #
1. IV rank premium selling
- only trade when IV rank > 45 (raised from 40)
- 50% profit target or 2 DTE
- -150% stop loss
- this one made money in march/april
2. volatility mean reversion
- long options when VIX spike > 15% in single day
- hold 3-7 days for vol crush
- hasn’t worked yet but backtest is solid
3. earnings fade
- sell overpriced post-earnings premium
- only trade stocks that beat estimates but IV still elevated
- 1-3 day hold
- new strategy, testing with smallest size
everything else paused. too much complexity was killing me.
what i’m NOT doing anymore #
- momentum strategies (4 losing months straight)
- crypto arb (too much slippage)
- calendar spreads (too much theta decay uncertainty)
- anything requiring > 5 DTE hold (too much exposure)
today’s trade #
sold SPX put spread. credit $0.42, target $0.21. IV rank was 52.
closed at $0.20 for $180 profit after commissions.
held for 4 hours. done by 1pm.
boring but profitable. that’s the goal now.
mental state #
honestly feel better trading smaller. less stress. can actually sleep when i have open positions.
april was anxiety every fucking day. waking up at 2am checking futures. refreshing P&L every 10 minutes.
today i checked twice. once at open, once before close. both times account was fine.
maybe this is what sustainable trading looks like? small wins, small losses, sleep at night.
the plan #
if may ends between -$5k and +$5k i’ll call it success. would prove:
- strategies work at smaller size
- risk management prevents blowups
- can scale back up slowly
if may ends worse than -$10k, taking june completely off to rebuild everything from scratch.
2:14am. couldn’t sleep so wrote this instead. hoping may is different.
-AK