april P&L: -$12,384 4-month total: -$60k
not improving fast enough.
the numbers #
Figure 1: Monthly and cumulative P&L Jan-Apr 2023. Trend is slightly improving but still deep red.
monthly breakdown:
- january: -$22k (learning curve)
- february: -$18k (overfitting issues)
- march: -$8k (improving)
- april: -$12k (regression)
thought i was improving in march. april proved me wrong.
what went right #
- implemented new risk management (saved ~$8k in potential losses)
- fixed backtest assumptions (now realistic)
- automated greeks tracking
- switched to polygon.io data
- daily loss limit prevented blowup days
what went wrong #
- still losing money overall
- new risk rules limited losses but also limited learning
- paper trading boring, went back live too early
- assignment bug cost $5k
- emotional discipline still shit
year-to-date: -15% #
started with $400k currently at $340k burn rate: $15k/month average
at this rate: broke by november 2023
need to either:
- become profitable in next 2 months
- reduce position sizes even more (extend runway)
- get a real job (fuck that)
break-even goal for may #
not targeting profits yet. just want to not lose money.
break-even would be huge progress. means:
- risk management working
- strategies actually viable
- can scale up slowly
lose another $15k in may? might be time to seriously reconsider this whole thing.
personal shit #
- broke up with J (finally)
- cleared out dad’s office
- therapy helping i guess
- still can’t sleep most nights
- considered pausing trading entirely, didn’t
what i’m changing for may #
1. only trade 3 best strategies pausing everything else. too much complexity.
2. smaller positions cutting size in half. rather make $5k slowly than lose $15k quickly.
3. strict paper testing nothing goes live without 30 days paper trading first. no exceptions.
4. weekly reviews every friday: analyze week, document lessons, adjust if needed
the question nobody asks #
“why keep trading if you’re down $60k?”
because:
- inheritance money specifically for this ($2M total, trading with $400k)
- already invested 4 months, quitting now = admitting total failure
- still believe algos can work if i unfuck my strategies
- alternative is getting regular job and i’d rather eat glass
also: parents’ life insurance paying for this education feels weirdly appropriate. they believed in me doing something entrepreneurial. trading counts.
may prediction #
conservative: -$5k to +$2k realistic: -$10k pessimistic: -$20k
if may ends worse than -$15k, taking june completely off to rebuild from scratch.
11:45pm saturday. month-end reviews are depressing but necessary. may has to be better.
-AK