july crushed. +$6,120 (75% over goal).
now planning august.
august goal #
target: +$4,000
why higher than july’s $3,500 original target?
- account larger ($351k vs $345k start july)
- systems proven (3 months profitable)
- confidence higher
but not going crazy. still reasonable 1.1% monthly target.
what i’m keeping #
1. current parameters
walk-forward validated these work:
- lookback: 21 days
- vol threshold: 1.2
- profit target: 50%
- stop loss: -150%
not changing shit that works.
2. vol detection system
saved $2,400 in july.
continuing as primary risk filter.
3. async data pipeline
3x speed improvement holding.
better fills from faster execution.
4. position sizing
strict 1.25% risk per trade.
worked in july. keeping it.
what i’m testing #
1. time-of-day filters
noticed: trades in first 30 min of market open have lower win rate.
hypothesis: too much volatility at open.
test: skip first 30 min, only trade after 10am EST.
measurement period: 2 weeks, 20+ trades.
2. correlation tracking
currently reject positions with >0.75 correlation.
test: lower to >0.70 to avoid even tighter concentration.
measurement: did it prevent losses without missing too many good trades?
what i’m NOT doing #
no crypto bot restart yet
lost $710 in june before pausing.
not restarting until complete signal rebuild.
august = focus on what’s working (options strategies).
no take advantage of increase
IB offered portfolio margin (9x employ) in june.
declined it.
still declining it.
discipline > flexibility.
no parameter optimization
already validated parameters via walk-forward.
next review: october (quarterly check).
infrastructure plans #
considering websockets:
currently polling APIs every second.
websockets = real-time push data.
pros:
- lower latency
- less API calls
- more efficient
cons:
- more complex code
- connection management
- debugging harder
decision: research in august, maybe implement september.
A. plans #
seeing her tuesday night (august 1st).
2 month anniversary of us meeting (met june 13).
taking her to nice dinner in la jolla.
things going really well. want to keep investing in relationship.
therapy schedule #
continuing wednesdays 2pm with Dr. R.
processing grief (8 months since parents died).
working on confidence and communication.
maybe discuss future planning (what do i want long-term?).
mental preparation #
staying humble:
3 profitable months is good.
but not enough to prove anything.
can still have losing months.
expecting 3-4 losing months per year.
staying disciplined:
winning creates temptation to get loose.
increase size. change parameters. get cocky.
resisting all of that.
risk management focus #
august priorities:
- protect capital (don’t give back july gains)
- maintain win rate above 75%
- keep max loss under $400 per trade
- zero parameter changes without data
week 1 august preview #
short week (monday is holiday, markets weird).
will be conservative first few days.
aim for 3-4 trades week 1.
quality over quantity.
account milestone #
currently: $351,145
if hit august goal (+$4k): $355,145
if maintain pace (+$6k like july): $357,145
getting close to $360k.
started live trading april at $220k (after $180k losses jan-mar).
almost $140k recovered since figuring out systems.
looking at bigger picture #
jan-mar 2023: lost $180k learning (painful)
apr 2023: break-even (applying systems)
may-jul 2023: +$32k total (systems working)
apr-jul total: +$131k (59.6% gain in 4 months)
expensive education but finally profitable.
goal: don’t lose discipline that got me here.
4:05am sunday. july done, august planned. goal: $4k. keeping what works, testing small improvements. staying humble.
-AK