may is wrapped. planning june now.
what i’m carrying forward #
strategies:
- premium selling (working)
- mean reversion v2 (needs more testing)
- vol regime detection (deploying monday)
risk management:
- 1.25% per trade
- max 5 positions
- correlation < 0.7
- sector limits (40% max)
infrastructure:
- async market data (working great)
- correlation checking (saved $1.6k in may)
- position manager (automated)
what i’m changing #
1. vol regime detection
goes live monday in paper mode.
will prevent trading during:
- VIX > 35
- 1-day VIX change > 15%
- low vol (VIX < 15)
backtest shows +$1,700/year improvement.
2. higher trade frequency
may: 19 trades june target: 25-30 trades
been too conservative with entries.
need more setups while maintaining quality.
3. better stop management
current: -200% stop on credit spreads testing: -150% with trailing logic
tighter stops might reduce loss size without increasing stop frequency.
4. weekly performance reviews
new habit: every sunday review week’s trades.
what worked, what didn’t, what to change.
prevents drifting off course.
june goals #
primary goal: +$3,000 (+0.88%)
stretch goal: +$5,000 (+1.47%)
minimum acceptable: +$1,000 (+0.29%)
anything below +$1k = reassess everything.
metrics i’m tracking #
performance:
- monthly P&L
- sharpe ratio
- max drawdown
- win rate
- avg win/loss ratio
execution:
- trades per week
- correlation rejections
- vol regime blocks
- slippage per trade
personal:
- gym sessions per week
- sleep hours per night
- therapy attendance
- code commits per week
risks to watch #
1. overconfidence
one profitable month doesn’t mean i’m good.
could be luck. need more data.
2. increasing position sizes too fast
tempting to scale up after winning month.
keeping sizes flat for june. reassess in july.
3. strategy drift
easy to tweak working strategies and break them.
resist urge to optimize profitable strategies.
4. relationship distractions
staying single for june. need focus.
code priorities for june #
1. vol regime detection (critical)
- deploy monday
- monitor all week
- go live week 2 if working
2. trailing stop logic
- test on historical trades
- paper trade 2 weeks
- deploy if improves win/loss ratio
3. order execution optimization
- reduce latency <100ms
- improve fill prices
- add smart order routing
4. backtest improvements
- add monte carlo validation
- walk-forward testing
- parameter sensitivity analysis
personal goals june #
trading:
- 25-30 trades
- maintain discipline
- follow rules strictly
health:
- gym 4x per week minimum
- sleep 7+ hours per night
- therapy every week
learning:
- finish async order execution
- study vol trading strategies
- read 2 trading books
books on reading list #
- “Lively Hedging” by Taleb
- “Volatility Trading” by Sinclair
both on volatility strategies. relevant for my current focus.
what success looks like in june #
best case:
- profitable every week
- no major drawdowns
- vol detection prevents losses
- confidence builds
realistic case:
- 3 of 4 weeks profitable
- 1 losing week but small
- net +$3k for month
- strategies validated again
worst case:
- multiple losing weeks
- give back may gains
- back to break-even or red
- reassess everything
my prediction #
june will be +$2.5k to +$4k.
volatility is settling. market conditions improving.
strategies are working. risk management is solid.
should be able to build on may’s success.
mindset for june #
confident but cautious:
- believe strategies work
- but one month isn’t proof
- need consistency over time
process over results:
- follow rules
- execute plan
- results will follow
long-term thinking:
- building sustainable system
- not chasing quick wins
- patience pays off
the plan #
week 1:
- deploy vol detection
- monitor carefully
- aim for 6-8 trades
week 2:
- validate vol detection working
- increase frequency if confident
- aim for 7-9 trades
week 3:
- full production mode
- all systems running
- aim for 7-9 trades
week 4:
- month-end push
- capitalize on lessons learned
- aim for 7-9 trades
total target: 27-35 trades
commitment #
june is about proving may wasn’t luck.
two profitable months in a row = trend.
trend = confidence to scale up.
let’s see if i can do it.
3:25am tuesday. may is done, june starts tomorrow. ready to prove this can work consistently.
-AK