may is done. first profitable month since going live.
final may numbers #
monthly performance:
- total trades: 19
- wins: 13
- losses: 6
- win rate: 68%
- gross profit: $3,980
- gross loss: $2,645
- net P&L: +$1,335
- return: +0.39%
- sharpe ratio: 1.48
account:
- started may: $340,000
- ended may: $341,335
- monthly gain: +$1,335 (0.39%)
first green month.
weekly breakdown #
week 1: +$520 week 2: -$1,010 week 3: +$940 week 4: +$885
net: +$1,335
what worked #
1. simplified strategies
cut rules from 12 to 5. removed overfit parameters.
old backtest: sharpe 2.08, live sharpe 0.43 (79% degradation) new backtest: sharpe 1.71, live sharpe 1.48 (13% degradation)
way more reliable.
2. correlation limits
rejected trades with >0.7 correlation to existing positions.
saved ~$1,600 in losses from correlated positions.
3. smaller position sizes
1.25% risk per trade instead of 2.5%.
losses were manageable: largest loss $315 vs potential $630.
4. async market data
rebuilt data pipeline. 5x faster updates.
better entry prices = higher win rate.
5. focus
single for most of may. no relationship distractions.
just trading, coding, gym.
what didn’t work #
volatility spikes:
week 4 had 2 losing trades during VIX spike.
didn’t have regime detection yet.
building it now to avoid future spike losses.
trade frequency:
only 19 trades. was aiming for 25-30.
too conservative with entry criteria.
need to find balance between quality and quantity.
comparison to previous months #
january: N/A (paper trading) february: -$18k (learning curve) march: -$8k (improving) april: -$12.4k (regression) may: +$1.3k (breakthrough)
finally positive.
year-to-date #
started: $400k current: $341,335 total loss: -$58,665 (-14.7%)
burn rate slowing:
- jan-apr average: -$14,650/month
- may: +$1,335
lessons from may #
1. simplicity works
- fewer rules = better results
- sturdy > impressive backtests
2. correlation kills
- multiple positions doesn’t = diversification
- check correlation > 0.7 = red flag
3. overfitting is real
- spent week fixing overfit strategies
- paid off immediately
4. know when not to trade
- missed 2 trades during vol spike
- building detection system
5. small consistent wins
- $1,335 isn’t amazing
- but it’s real and repeatable
changes for june #
trading:
- deploy vol regime detection
- increase trade frequency to 25-30/month
- maintain position sizing (working)
- keep correlation limits strict
code:
- finish vol detection system
- add more backtest validation
- improve order execution speed
personal:
- keep gym routine (4x/week)
- therapy weekly
- stay single for now
june goal #
conservative: +$2k to +$4k realistic: +$3k optimistic: +$5k
aiming for 1% monthly return.
if i can average 1% per month consistently, that’s 12.7% annually.
not amazing but sustainable.
the bigger picture #
been 22 weeks since parents died. 5 months since starting live trading.
lost $58k learning.
but may proved strategies can work.
if june is profitable, that’s 2 months in a row.
that’s a trend.
confidence level #
january confidence: 30% (no idea what i’m doing) march confidence: 45% (some things working) may confidence: 70% (strategies validated)
not perfect but way better.
emotional state #
less stressed now.
first profitable month feels like validation that this can work.
still miss parents. always will.
but trading gives structure and purpose.
concrete problems with concrete solutions.
final thoughts #
may wasn’t amazing. +0.39% is barely green.
but it’s the first month i didn’t lose money.
that matters.
proves:
- strategies work
- risk management works
- i can do this
june goal: prove may wasn’t luck.
11:42pm sunday may 28. may is done. first profitable month. moving forward.
-AK