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week 1 review - small progress

first week of may done. +$520.

not amazing but way better than april’s weekly average (-$3k/week).

the numbers
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trades this week:

  • total: 4
  • wins: 3
  • losses: 1
  • win rate: 75%
  • avg winner: $240
  • avg loser: $200
  • net: +$520

account:

  • started may: $340,000
  • current: $340,520
  • weekly return: +0.15%
  • annualized: 8.1%

what worked
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1. smaller position sizes

max loss per trade: $425 (down from $850)

meant my one loser cost $200 instead of potentially $400+. saved ~$200 by cutting size.

also less stress. can hold positions without checking every 10 minutes.

2. only 3 strategies

stopped trading momentum, crypto arb, calendars. only doing:

  • IV rank premium selling
  • vol mean reversion
  • earnings fade

less complexity = less cognitive load = fewer mistakes.

3. fixed assignment bug

spent 6 hours wednesday fixing the early assignment bug that cost me $5k in april. no assignments this week but at least code is ready now.

4. weekly review process

every friday: analyze all trades, update strategy docs, plan next week.

this post is part of that. forces me to actually think about what’s working vs just grinding trades.

what didn’t work
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1. trade frequency

only 4 trades in 5 days. was aiming for 1-2 per day.

too conservative with entry criteria. raised IV rank requirement from 40 to 45 which filtered out 3 potential setups.

need to find balance between quality and quantity.

2. earnings fade

new strategy, tested once this week. lost $200.

bought back spread too early (panic closed when underlying moved against me). should’ve held for target or stop.

maybe not ready for this strategy yet. might pause it.

3. still not sleeping well

even with smaller size i’m waking up at 2-3am checking futures. old habits.

need to trust the stops and actually sleep.

lessons from week 1
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  1. smaller size helps mentally - can think clearly instead of panic-trading
  2. 3 strategies is manageable - anything more was too much
  3. code bugs are expensive - $5k lesson learned in april
  4. quality > quantity - 4 good setups beat 10 mediocre ones
  5. weekly reviews work - forces accountability

plan for week 2
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trading:

  • aim for 6-8 trades (slightly higher frequency)
  • lower IV rank back to 43 (from 45) to get more setups
  • pause earnings fade strategy, focus on the 2 proven ones

code:

  • finish assignment testing
  • add correlation tracking between positions
  • build weekly performance dashboard

personal:

  • try to sleep before 2am at least 3 nights
  • go to the gym (haven’t been in 2 weeks)
  • maybe call that girl who texted me yesterday

may goal check
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goal: break-even to +$5k for the month

week 1: +$520 remaining: +$0 to +$4,480 in next 3 weeks

possible? yeah if i don’t fuck up.

need to average +$1k/week (or break-even on weeks 2-4). totally doable with current strategy performance.

one month since…
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parents died 18 weeks ago today (december 31).

some weeks i barely think about them. this week i thought about them a lot.

cleared out more of dad’s stuff from the garage. found his old trading books from the 90s. kept a few, donated the rest.

he would’ve liked that i’m trading algorithmically. was always into tech and automation.

trading gives me something to focus on besides the fact they’re gone. some days that’s worth more than the money.


2:22pm saturday. week 1 done, 3 more weeks to go. need this month to work.

-AK

Related

april wrap - down another 12k
april P&L: -$12,384 4-month total: -$60k not improving fast enough. the numbers # Figure 1: Monthly and cumulative P&L Jan-Apr 2023. Trend is slightly improving but still deep red.
first 90 days live - reality check
3 months into trading with real money and i’m down $40k. not what i expected but also exactly what i should’ve expected. paper trading for 3 years (2020-2022) gave me this false confidence that live trading would be similar. LMAO nope. completely different game when actual money is on the line.
march 2023: first month live trading results
first month done # march 15 - march 31 (2.5 weeks live) went from paper trading to real money. lost $180k in february learning. figured some shit out. went live march 15
week 3 performance: sharpe 2.1 actual vs 1.64 backtest
three weeks live = enough data for initial validation # march 15 - march 30 (15 trading days)