first positive week in may. finally.
the numbers #
trades this week:
- total: 5
- wins: 4
- losses: 1
- win rate: 80%
- avg winner: $295
- avg loser: $240
- net: +$940
account:
- started week: $339,510
- current: $340,450
- weekly return: +0.28%
- may total: +0.14% (+$450)
back to green for the month.
what changed #
simplified strategies:
spent monday checking for overfitting. found it everywhere.
cut rules from 12 to 5. removed oddly specific parameters.
backtests look worse but live performance better.
old strategy:
- backtest sharpe: 2.08
- live sharpe: 0.43
- 79% degradation
new strategy:
- backtest sharpe: 1.71
- live sharpe: 1.52 (estimated from this week)
- 11% degradation
way more consistent.
correlation limits working:
new code rejected 2 trades this week:
- GOOGL put spread (0.87 correlation with existing QQQ position)
- NVDA call spread (0.91 correlation with AAPL position)
would’ve both lost money on thursday’s tech selloff.
saved ~$600 by not taking them.
async market data:
rebuilt data pipeline using python async.
latency: 650ms → 120ms per update throughput: 10 symbols/sec → 80 symbols/sec
faster data = better entry prices = higher win rate.
no relationship distractions:
broke up with J on thursday. been single since.
weirdly focused now. no texts to respond to, no “where is this going” conversations.
just trading, coding, gym, sleep.
kind of prefer it this way.
week 3 trades #
| date | underlying | type | credit | outcome | P&L | reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/15 | SPX | put spread | $0.92 | win 50% | $410 | normal exit |
| 5/16 | TLT | call spread | $0.68 | win 50% | $295 | normal exit |
| 5/17 | GLD | put spread | $0.55 | loss | -$240 | stopped out |
| 5/19 | SPX | put spread | $0.85 | win 50% | $380 | normal exit |
| 5/20 | IWM | call spread | $0.72 | win 2DTE | $295 | early exit |
note: all different underlyings, low correlation between positions.
may progress #
week 1: +$520 week 2: -$1,010 week 3: +$940
net may: +$450 (0.14%)
finally positive for the month.
what’s working #
1. position diversity
this week’s positions:
- SPX (broad market)
- TLT (bonds, -0.45 correlation to stocks)
- GLD (gold, 0.12 correlation to stocks)
- IWM (small caps, 0.76 correlation to SPX but different sector exposure)
max correlation between any two: 0.76
much better than last week’s 0.92.
2. simpler rules
premium selling strategy now:
- IV rank > 45
- delta 0.15-0.25
- dte 30-45
- earnings > 7 days away
- correlation < 0.7 with existing positions
5 rules. clean. works.
3. smaller position sizes
still at 1.25% risk per trade ($425 max loss)
one loss this week cost $240. manageable.
4. realistic expectations
not targeting massive returns. just consistent small wins.
$940 per week = $4k per month = $48k per year
on $340k account = 14% annual return
not amazing but sustainable.
may goal status #
original goal: break-even to +$5k
current: +$450
one week left. need +$4,550 to hit upper goal.
unlikely but at least i’m positive now.
the one loss #
GLD put spread on 5/17.
entered at $0.55 credit, stopped out at -200% for $240 loss.
gold spiked on dollar weakness. nothing wrong with trade, just got stopped.
win rate will never be 100%. managed the loss properly.
correlation check prevented losses #
thursday tech dump:
- QQQ: -2.1%
- AAPL: -2.4%
- GOOGL: -2.8%
- NVDA: -3.1%
had existing QQQ position. correlation checking rejected GOOGL and NVDA trades.
if i’d taken them:
- QQQ position: -$415 (stopped out)
- GOOGL position: -$485 (would’ve stopped)
- NVDA position: -$520 (would’ve stopped)
total loss: -$1,420
actual loss: -$415 (only QQQ)
correlation checking saved $1,005.
psychological state #
better this week.
focused. not distracted by relationship stuff.
trading is clearer when it’s the only thing i’m thinking about.
still miss my parents randomly. been 21 weeks. still sucks.
but trading gives structure. concrete problems with concrete solutions.
changes for week 4 (final week of may) #
trading:
- continue current approach (working)
- stay strict on correlation limits
- no changes to working strategies
code:
- finish async order execution
- add more backtest validation
- document everything
personal:
- gym 4x this week (been slacking)
- therapy wednesday
- no dating for a while
lessons from may so far #
- simplicity beats complexity - fewer rules, better results
- correlation matters - saved $1k+ this week by checking it
- small consistent wins - better than big inconsistent wins
- overfitting is real - impressive backtests don’t mean shit
- focus matters - no relationship = more focus = better trading
may final week prediction #
conservative: +$500 to +$1,000 (total: +$950 to +$1,450) realistic: +$800 (total: +$1,250) optimistic: +$1,500 (total: +$1,950)
would be happy with anything above +$1k for the month.
first profitable month since going live would be huge.
comparison to april #
april: -$12,384 may (so far): +$450
massive improvement.
if may ends positive, proves strategies are fixable.
the bigger picture #
started with $400k in january. lost $60k in first 4 months learning. currently at $340k.
if may ends at +$1k:
- 5 month total: -$59k
- burn rate slowing
- might actually become profitable
long way to go but week 3 feels like turning point.
4:15pm sunday. week 3 done. one more week to finish may positive. feels possible now.
-AK