mid-september check.
ytd pacing analysis.
target already crushed.
current status (sep 21) #
account: $441,260
ytd gain: +$75,060 (+20.5%)
annual target: +15-18%
exceeded by: +2.5%
monthly breakdown 2024 #
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - strong
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%) - standout
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%) - normal
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%) - modest
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%) - modest
august: +$900 (+0.21%) - survival
september (partial): +$6,460 (+1.49%) - building
pattern:
2 notable months (jan, apr): +$50,660
7 flat/modest months: +$24,400
standout months carried year.
modest months maintained discipline.
H2 2024 reality check #
remaining months: oct, nov, dec (3.5 months)
ytd: +20.5%
to finish at 18% target:
need: -2.5% combined remaining months.
achievable with:
- 2 flat months (+0% to +0.5%)
- 1 losing month (-2% to -3%)
or:
- 3 flat months (+0% to +0.5%)
- finish slightly above 18%
both acceptable.
comparing to 2023 #
2023 full year:
-$34k total (-8.5%)
lost $180k learning.
recovered $146k.
2024 ytd (9 months):
+$75,060 (+20.5%)
validated strategies.
disciplined execution.
$109k swing year-over-year.
what’s working #
strategy: adaptive regime detection
optimized parameters.
execution: slippage control
chicago colo + limit orders.
risk management: circuit breakers
prevented disasters.
psychology: variance acceptance
no revenge trading.
relationship: stable foundation
A. doesn’t tie relationship to performance.
routine: locked schedule
no distractions.
what could derail H2 #
1. overconfidence
thinking every month can be april.
reality: variance inevitable.
2. position size creep
increasing beyond $1,500.
discipline: maintain consistency.
3. filter relaxation
accepting lower quality setups.
solution: trust system.
4. revenge trading after losses
one losing month triggers emotional response.
prevention: circuit breaker protocol.
H2 2024 plan #
october:
expect modest month (+1% to +2%) or flat.
november:
similar to october.
december:
holiday volume = cautious.
flat to small loss acceptable.
combined: +0% to +3% acceptable.
finish: 18-21% annual likely.
lessons from 9 months #
1. impressive months rare
january + april = outliers.
can’t expect monthly.
2. flat months essential
feb, mar, aug demonstrated discipline.
preservation > growth.
3. summer is real
july-august struggle validated.
september recovery confirmed pattern.
4. variance acceptance critical
fighting variance = losses.
accepting variance = long-term success.
5. system > discretion
following rules works.
emotional trading fails.
tonight (sep 21, 3:02am) #
mid-september check.
ytd +20.5%.
target 15-18% exceeded.
H2 needs flat/losing months to finish in range.
acceptable.
sustainable.
execute system.
accept variance.
3:02am saturday. mid-september ytd check. +$75,060 (20.5%) exceeds 15-18% target by 2.5%. pattern shows 2 standout months carried year, 7 modest/flat months maintained discipline. H2 needs flat/losing months to finish 18-21%. sustainable pace demonstrated.
-AK