august done.
summer slowest month confirmed.
survival = success.
august final numbers #
starting (aug 1): $433,900
ending (aug 31): $434,800
august gain: +$900 (+0.21%)
trades: 14
wins: 10
losses: 4
win rate: 71%
Figure 1: August weekly performance demonstrating summer lull. Week 1 modest start (+$380, 60% wr), Week 2 ONLY LOSING WEEK (-$140, 50% wr - volume worst all year), Week 3 recovery (+$240, 75% wr), Week 4 improvement (+$420, 71% wr). Month ended +$900 (+0.21%). 14 total trades = 3.5 trades/week avg vs July 7.8 trades/week. Summer volume drought reduced opportunity.
weekly breakdown #
Figure 2: Volume and slippage correlation throughout August. Volume improved week-over-week: Week 1 (-32% vs July) → Week 4 (-25% vs July). Slippage correlated: Week 1 (2.9 ticks) → Week 4 (2.6 ticks). August avg 2.8 ticks vs July 2.3 ticks (+22% worse execution). Low summer volume = wider spreads = higher execution costs eating edge. Chicago colocation preventing 3.5+ tick nightmare but can’t overcome liquidity drought.
week 1: +$380, 60% wr, 5 trades
week 2: -$140, 50% wr, 3 trades
week 3: +$240, 75% wr, 4 trades
week 4: +$420, 71% wr, 2 trades
3 positive weeks, 1 losing week.
normal variance pattern.
comparing to previous months 2024 #
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - impressive
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%) - impressive
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%) - normal
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%) - modest
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%) - modest
august: +$900 (+0.21%) - survival
pattern consistent: 2 strong, 6 modest/flat/survival.
sustainable pace.
ytd 2024 progress #
Figure 3: Year-to-date 2024 monthly progression through August. Pattern shows 2 impressive months (Jan +7.4%, Apr +5.9%) carried year. Six modest/flat months (Feb +0.36%, Mar +0.28%, May +0.83%, Jun +1.97%, Jul +0.63%, Aug +0.21%) demonstrate realistic algo trading variance. YTD total +$68,500 (+17.58%). Annual target 15-18% exceeded by 0.58%. Remaining 4 months (Sep-Dec) can be flat or slightly negative and still finish in target range. Green zone = target range 15-18%.
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%)
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%)
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%)
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%)
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%)
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%)
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%)
august: +$900 (+0.21%)
ytd total: +$68,500 (+17.58%)
starting balance (jan 1): $366,200
current balance (aug 31): $434,800
annual target exceeded #
ytd: +17.58% in 8 months
annual target: +15-18%
exceeded by 0.58%.
remaining 4 months (sep-dec):
can be:
- 3 flat months (+0% to +0.5%)
- 1 small losing month (-1% to -2%)
still finish 15-18% annual.
zero pressure.
circuit breaker performance #
august:
not triggered once.
not close.
week 2 worst: -$140 total.
max single day loss: -$90.
threshold: -$1,500 single day OR 3 consecutive losses.
filters prevented reaching threshold.
risk management stats #
position sizing: $1,500 all trades (consistent)
circuit breaker: not triggered (preventive filters worked)
max drawdown: -$140 (0.03%)
filters: 39% acceptance avg
variance:
- week 2 low: 35%
- week 4 high: 43%
regime confidence avg: 0.69
variance:
- week 2 low: 0.64
- week 4 high: 0.73
filters adapted correctly to summer conditions.
market conditions #
august reality:
avg volume: -29% vs july
avg VIX: 16.0 (optimal but irrelevant)
avg correlation: 0.54 (weak)
avg regime stability: 0.69 (lower than july 0.71)
summer = lower participation.
VIX optimal but:
volume dried up.
spreads widened.
correlation weak.
result: edge compressed.
slippage tracking detail #
august avg: 2.8 ticks
july avg: 2.3 ticks
june avg: 1.9 ticks
april avg: 1.7 ticks
+65% worse than april.
summer degradation:
august vs april: +1.1 ticks worse avg.
cost impact: ~$15-20 per trade.
14 trades × $17.50 avg = $245 slippage cost.
gross gain pre-slippage: ~$1,145
net gain post-slippage: $900
slippage ate 21% of gross.
chicago colo critical:
without it, august avg would be 4+ ticks.
4 ticks × 14 trades × $12.50 = $700 slippage cost.
colo saved ~$455 this month.
comparing to expectations #
late july forecast: flat to small gain (+$0 to +$1,500).
actual: +$900
within range.
august = survival.
confirmed.
lessons from august #
1. august lives up to reputation
slowest month confirmed.
volume -29% avg vs july.
3.5 trades/week vs normal 8.
2. survival = success in august
+$900 profit in worst volume conditions.
vs forcing trades = potential losses.
3. slippage matters exponentially in low volume
2.8 ticks eating 21% of gross gains.
in normal volume, would be 12-15%.
execution costs dominate in summer.
4. filters prevent disasters
39% acceptance preserved capital.
vs 100% acceptance = certain losses.
5. ytd cushion enables patience
+17.58% ytd allows zero pressure august.
can afford to wait for conditions.
comparing to 2023 #
august 2023:
- still learning
- losing money
- didn’t understand seasonality
- emotional trading
- small position sizes
august 2024:
- strategies validated
- +$900 profit
- filters adapted to summer
- disciplined execution
- full position size
1 year transformation.
therapy reflection (8/28) #
dr. r: “august wrapping up. +$900. thoughts?”
me: “exactly what august should be. volume sucked, slippage ate edge, filters saved capital. survival = success.”
dr. r: “you’re not frustrated by slow month?”
me: “nope. ytd +17.6%. august doesn’t need to be impressive. just not negative.”
dr. r: “that’s mature trading psychology.”
me: “learned from 2023. forced trades in summer = losses. patience in august = preservation.”
dr. r: “and personally?”
me: “9 months with A. marriage thought still there. no rush but persistent.”
dr. r: “persistent is the key word.”
exactly.
living with A. - 9 months summary #
what’s locked:
daily routine perfect.
coffee mug situation resolved.
sex life incredible (places list: 22).
what’s still friction:
her mess vs my OCD (ongoing negotiation).
sometimes she wants to talk when i need silence.
overall:
best relationship i’ve had.
thinking years not weeks.
marriage thought occurred 8 times since birthday.
no exit strategy.
september preview #
historical pattern:
september typically picks up after labor day.
volume returns.
realistic expectations:
modest month (+1% to +2%) - likely.
flat month (+0% to +1%) - possible.
small loss (-1% to -2%) - acceptable.
all within sustainable range.
ytd already above target.
no pressure.
what success looks like august #
august success:
survived slowest month positive.
maintained discipline (didn’t force trades).
filters prevented disaster (39% acceptance).
slippage managed (chicago colo critical).
not exciting but sustainable.
survival in august = setup for september.
tonight (august 31, 11:55pm) #
august done.
+$900 (+0.21%).
71% win rate.
14 trades total = 3.5/week avg.
slippage 2.8 ticks eating 21% gross.
filters rejecting 61%.
volume -29% vs july.
ytd +$68,500 (+17.58%).
annual target exceeded.
september begins tomorrow.
realistic expectations.
execute system.
accept variance.
survive august = success.
11:55pm saturday. august wrap. +$900 (0.21%). 71% win rate across 14 trades. weekly pattern: +$380, -$140, +$240, +$420. summer volume -29% vs july. avg slippage 2.8 ticks vs july 2.3 ticks. filters rejecting 61% = capital preservation. ytd +$68,500 (17.58%) exceeded target. 4 months remaining can be flat and still hit 15-18%. survival confirmed.
-AK