march done.
testing month complete.
foundation built for Q2.
march final numbers #
starting (mar 1): $394,800
ending (mar 31): $395,900
march gain: +$1,100 (+0.28%)
trades: 34
wins: 20
losses: 14
win rate: 59%
Figure 1: March testing period showing flat account progression during strategy validation. Week 1 paper trading (no real money), Week 2 live at $100 size, Week 3 $200 size, Week 4 $400 size. Account barely moved during testing - capital preservation successful. Testing phase = risk management.
weekly breakdown #
Figure 2: Gradual position size ramp through March. Started paper trading at $0 real money (67% win rate), increased to $100 size week 2 (50% win rate as reality hit), then $200 size week 3 (60% win rate improved), ending $400 size week 4 (58% win rate held). Slow ramp = cheap lessons.
week 1 (paper): 12 trades, 67% win rate, $0 real money
week 2 ($100): 4 trades, 50% win rate, +$18
week 3 ($200): 10 trades, 60% win rate, +$650
week 4 ($400): 8 trades, 63% win rate, +$432
total real money: +$1,100
slow ramp worked.
Q1 2024 summary #
Figure 3: Q1 performance showing strong January (+7.4%), realistic February (+0.36%), and flat March testing period (+0.28%). Account progressed from $366,200 to $395,900. Q1 YTD: +$29,700 (+8.1%). January was outlier - one of 2x strong months per year allowed. Feb/Mar show sustainable performance.
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - notable month
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat/reality check
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing phase
Q1 total: +$29,700 (+8.1%)
Q1 annualized pace: ~32%
NOT SUSTAINABLE.
need Q2-Q4 correction.
year to date reality check #
starting balance (jan 1): $366,200
current balance (mar 31): $395,900
ytd gain: +$29,700 (+8.1%)
strong Q1 performance.
adaptive strategy validation #
testing results:
paper trading: 67% win rate (unrealistic)
live $100-400: 57% win rate (realistic)
issues found and fixed:
- regime detection too slow (fixed with 3-hour confirmation)
- slippage underestimated (added 0.2 std dev buffer)
- fill delays on entries (switched to limit orders with 2-tick buffer)
- false regime triggers (confirmation logic improved)
strategy ready for larger size.
april plan #
week 1 (apr 1-5): $800 size
week 2 (apr 8-12): $1,200 size
week 3-4 (apr 15-30): full size $1,500 if validated
target april: +$2-4k (+0.5% to 1%)
conservative ramp.
comparing to march 2023 #
march 2023:
tested 2 weeks paper.
jumped to full size immediately.
lost $40k.
march 2024:
tested 4 weeks with gradual size ramp.
found issues at tiny size.
cost $1,100 to learn instead of $40k.
patience paid off.
therapy friday (3/29) #
dr. r: “month of testing complete. how do you feel?”
me: “good. ready to increase size in april.”
dr. r: “confident or overconfident?”
me: “confident. tested thoroughly. found issues. fixed them.”
dr. r: “what if april struggles?”
me: “then back down to smaller size. not committed to full size until proven.”
dr. r: “that’s mature risk management.”
me: “march 2023 taught me expensive lesson. march 2024 showed i learned.”
exactly.
living with A. - 5 months #
moved in: november 1, 2023
today: march 31, 2024
5 months living together.
what’s working:
routine locked.
comfortable silence.
mutual respect for space.
she helps with code bugs.
i clean while she cooks.
what’s still friction:
her mess vs my OCD (ongoing).
bathroom schedule conflicts (solved with 2nd bathroom rule).
coffee mug territorialism (we each have 3 designated mugs now).
but manageable.
relationship stable.
march lessons #
1. testing takes time
4 weeks felt slow.
wanted to rush to full size.
patience prevented disaster.
2. paper trading optimistic
67% win rate paper → 57% live.
reality has friction.
3. gradual ramp works
$0 → $100 → $200 → $400 → next: $1,500.
found issues at each step.
cheap lessons.
4. capital preservation matters
march: +$1,100 (basically flat).
preserved capital while learning.
better than losing testing.
Q2 outlook #
april: ramp to full size
may: first full month with adaptive strategy
june: evaluate and adjust
Q2 target: +$5-8k total (+1.3% to 2%)
conservative after Q1 significant performance.
tonight (mar 31, 11:12pm) #
march done.
+$1,100 (+0.28%).
59% win rate.
testing month complete.
adaptive strategy validated.
issues found and fixed.
Q1: +$29,700 (8.1%).
january notable, feb/mar realistic.
Q2 begins tomorrow.
foundation built.
11:12pm mar 31. march wrap. +$1,100 (0.28%). 59% win rate across 34 trades. testing period with gradual size ramp $0→$100→$200→$400. found regime detection issues, slippage problems, fixed before scaling. Q1 total +$29,700 (8.1%) - january standout, need Q2-Q4 correction to sustainable 15-18% annual. april begins full size ramp.
-AK