first week april done.
ramping to full size.
confidence building.
week 1 april trades (apr 1-5) #
monday 4/1: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$520 ($800 size)
tuesday 4/2: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$680 ($800 size)
wednesday 4/3: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$440 ($800 size)
thursday 4/4: 2 trades, 1 win. +$180 ($800 size)
friday 4/5: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$580 ($1,200 size - increased mid-week)
week total: 13 trades, 9 wins (69%). +$2,400
account status #
apr 1: $395,900
apr 5: $398,300
week 1 progress: +$2,400
solid start.
position sizing progression #
march final week: $400 size
april week 1 mon-thu: $800 size
april week 1 fri: $1,200 size
next week target: full size $1,500
gradual ramp working.
hit 69% win rate at $800.
increased to $1,200 friday.
still holding 67% (2/3 trades).
confidence justified.
adaptive strategy performance #
regime detection: working perfectly
monday: low vol regime (VIX 14), tight stops
wednesday: medium vol regime (VIX 17), moderate stops
friday: back to low vol (VIX 15), tight stops
strategy adapted correctly each time.
slippage managed:
added 0.2 std dev buffer to entries.
averaging 1.8 ticks slippage (down from 2.5 in march).
acceptable range.
comparing to march testing #
march week 4: $400 size, 63% win rate, +$432
april week 1: $800-1,200 size, 69% win rate, +$2,400
5.6x profit increase.
larger size + maintained win rate = results.
testing phase validated.
what’s different now #
march mindset: tentative, testing, uncertain
april mindset: confident, validated, ready
key difference:
march = finding problems.
april = executing proven strategy.
4 weeks testing paid off.
therapy tuesday (4/2) #
dr. r: “back to larger size. nervous?”
me: “no. tested thoroughly. strategy works.”
dr. r: “what about march 2023 flashback?”
me: “march 2023 i rushed. this time i took 4 weeks testing tiny size.”
dr. r: “feels different?”
me: “yeah. march 2023 was hope. april 2024 is confidence from evidence.”
dr. r: “that’s the distinction. hope vs evidence.”
exactly.
living with A. - support #
wednesday night:
good trading day.
came home in solid mood.
A.: “good day?”
me: “yeah. strategy working. up $2k this week.”
A.: “back to full size soon?”
me: “next week probably. hit 69% win rate at $800.”
A.: “you seem… lighter. less stressed than march.”
me: “march was testing unknown. now it’s executing known.”
A.: “confidence looks good on you.”
she’s right.
march = anxiety about whether strategy would work.
april = calm from knowing it works.
market conditions ideal #
VIX: 14-17 range (low to medium vol)
regime shifts: only 2 this week (manageable)
correlation: low (0.4)
setups: high quality
conditions favor mean reversion.
adaptive strategy succeeding.
weekly projection for april #
week 1: +$2,400 (done)
week 2 target: +$2,000-3,000 (full size $1,500)
week 3 target: +$2,000-3,000
week 4 target: +$2,000-3,000
april total target: +$8-11k (+2% to 2.8%)
realistic after flat march.
risk management check #
circuit breaker: not triggered
max losing streak: 1 loss (wednesday)
position sizing: gradual ramp
filters: passing 60% of signals (high quality focus)
system functioning perfectly.
the march patience payoff #
march felt slow:
4 weeks testing.
only +$1,100 profit.
wanted to rush.
april shows why patience mattered:
found regime detection issues at $100 size (cheap lesson).
found slippage problems at $200 size (cheap lesson).
validated at $400 size.
now executing at $800-1,200 with confidence.
march cost $1,100 to learn.
would’ve cost $40k+ without testing.
looking ahead #
week 2 (apr 8-12):
full size $1,500 all week.
target 60%+ win rate.
target +$2-3k.
if struggles:
drop back to $800 size.
reassess.
if maintains:
continue full size rest of april.
tonight #
first week april.
+$2,400.
69% win rate.
ramped from $800 to $1,200.
next week: full size $1,500.
march testing paid off.
confidence justified by evidence.
2:48am sunday. first week april. +$2,400. 69% win rate across 13 trades. ramped position size $800→$1,200. adaptive strategy working - regime detection perfect, slippage managed. march testing paid off. full size $1,500 next week. confidence from evidence not hope.
-AK