first week february done.
choppy as expected.
tighter risk working.
week 1 february trades (feb 1-2, 5-7) #
thursday 2/1: 2 trades, 1 win. +$480
friday 2/2: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$920
monday 2/5: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$740
tuesday 2/6: 2 trades, 1 win. +$380
wednesday 2/7: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$860
week total: +$3,380
account status #
jan 31: $393,400
feb 7: $396,780
cleared sept peak ($395,680).
full recovery complete.
win rate check #
week 1 feb: 13 trades, 8 wins (62%)
below 70% threshold.
expected with choppy conditions.
risk adjustment working:
reduced from 0.5% to 0.4% per trade.
smaller wins but also smaller losses.
protecting capital.
strategy breakdown #
mean reversion (9 trades):
- 6 wins, 3 losses (67%)
- net: +$2,340
- still primary but struggling
momentum (4 trades):
- 2 wins, 2 losses (50%)
- net: +$1,040
- breakeven zone
market not cooperating.
comparing to january peak #
january best week: +$7,300, 76% win rate
february week 1: +$3,380, 62% win rate
performance cut in half.
reasons:
- VIX up (16 → 18)
- volume choppy
- setups lower quality
- risk reduced to 0.4%
expected variance.
not panicking.
circuit breaker almost triggered #
monday 2/5:
3 trades scheduled.
first trade: loss.
second trade: loss.
3-loss circuit breaker armed.
third trade: win.
circuit breaker disarmed.
came close.
system working as designed.
recovery milestone achieved #
sept peak (before disaster): $395,680
sept end (after disaster): $367,680
today: $396,780
$1,100 above sept peak.
took 5 months from disaster to recovery:
- sept: disaster (-$28k)
- oct: survival
- nov: recovery start (+$23k)
- dec: grief survival (+$3.6k)
- jan: growth (+$27k)
- feb week 1: milestone (+$3.4k)
full circle.
what’s different from september #
september 2023 (at peak):
- overconfident
- ignored warning signs
- relationship unstable
- grief suppressed
february 2024 (at recovery):
- cautious
- respecting market conditions
- relationship stable
- grief processed
same account level.
different foundation.
therapy tuesday (2/6) #
dr. r: “you crossed sept peak. full recovery. how does it feel?”
me: “good but waiting for collapse.”
dr. r: “still trauma response?”
me: “yeah. feels like jinx.”
dr. r: “what’s the evidence? data says what?”
me: “market choppy. win rate 62%. conditions shifting.”
dr. r: “and you’re responding how?”
me: “reduced risk. stricter filters. protecting capital.”
dr. r: “that’s data-driven caution. not trauma.”
me: “feels like waiting for disaster though.”
dr. r: “feeling vs action. you feel cautious but act systematically. that’s healthy.”
distinction matters.
risk management validation #
position sizing reduction:
january: 0.5% risk per trade
february: 0.4% risk per trade
impact:
smaller gains: week 1 gains down 54% from jan avg
smaller losses: max loss $320 (was $450 in jan)
protecting downside.
living with A. - routine adjusted #
morning routine same:
4am wake.
6:30-10am trade.
10am breakfast.
evening adjusted:
A. started new project at work.
getting home later (8pm instead of 7pm).
dinner pushed to 8:30pm.
still works.
flexibility > rigidity.
market conditions deteriorating #
signals:
VIX: 18 (was 13-15 in jan)
volume: erratic spikes and drops
setups: quality declining
correlation: everything moving together
not crash signals.
but choppier environment.
strategy:
maintain 0.4% risk through february.
heavily favor mean reversion.
pass momentum unless A+ setup.
target: +$3-5k per week (conservative).
strategy consideration #
mean reversion struggling:
january: 81% win rate
february week 1: 67% win rate
market regime shift.
mean reversion works best in stable/ranging markets.
current: whipsaw conditions.
option 1: ride it out, market will stabilize
option 2: reduce mean reversion, add different strategy
decision: ride it out for 2 more weeks.
if win rate stays <65%, adjust.
looking ahead #
week 2 feb (feb 8-14):
valentine’s day wednesday.
A. expects something.
planning date night.
trading:
continue 0.4% risk.
strict filters.
target +$3-5k week.
monthly projection:
if maintains $3.5k/week avg: +$14-17k month.
way below january (+$27k).
but sustainable in choppy market.
tonight #
first week february.
+$3,380.
62% win rate.
cleared sept peak.
full recovery complete.
market conditions changed.
adapting based on this.
this is the process.
3:18am thursday. first week february. +$3,380. 62% win rate. cleared sept peak at $396,780. full recovery from september disaster complete (5 months). market choppy, reduced risk to 0.4%, tighter filters. performance cut in half from january but protecting capital.
-AK