week 4 done.
finishing strong.
momentum maintained.
week 4 trades (jan 22-26) #
monday 1/22: 4 trades, 3 wins. +$1,840
tuesday 1/23: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$1,430
wednesday 1/24: 4 trades, 3 wins. +$1,570
thursday 1/25: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$1,140
friday 1/26: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$1,500
week total: +$6,480
account status #
jan 19: $386,920
jan 26: $393,400
january progress (4 weeks): +$27,200 (+7.42%)
beat original target by 4.5x.
win rate check #
week 4: 17 trades, 12 wins (71%)
january combined (4 weeks): 62 trades, 48 wins (77%)
dropped from 80% to 77%.
expected variance.
still well above 75% target.
strategy breakdown week 4 #
mean reversion (12 trades):
- 9 wins, 3 losses (75%)
- net: +$4,920
- still primary edge
momentum (5 trades):
- 3 wins, 2 losses (60%)
- net: +$1,560
- secondary, selective
mean reversion maintaining dominance.
risk management notes #
week 4 had 3 consecutive losses (wed-thu).
first losing streak since november.
3-loss circuit breaker almost triggered.
stopped after loss #3 wednesday afternoon.
resumed thursday morning fresh.
circuit breaker working as designed.
didn’t spiral.
didn’t revenge trade.
just stopped and reset.
what i’m watching #
win rate declining:
- week 1: 86%
- week 2: 76%
- week 3: 79%
- week 4: 71%
natural regression.
but watching for trend continuation.
if drops below 70% next week, reducing size to 0.4% risk.
proactive adjustment.
market conditions changing #
VIX creeping up: 14 → 16 range
volume declining: late january exhaustion
setups getting pickier: quality decreasing slightly
not red flags yet.
but monitoring closely.
february might be choppier.
comparing to november #
november 2023 (recovery): +$23,480, 84% win rate
january 2024 (4 weeks): +$27,200, 77% win rate
beat november on total gain.
lower win rate but higher volume = more profit.
evolution.
therapy tuesday (1/23) #
dr. r: “four weeks january. $27k month. how does it feel?”
me: “good. cautious. waiting for the other shoe.”
dr. r: “waiting for disaster?”
me: “always. september taught me that.”
dr. r: “difference between healthy caution and trauma response?”
me: “…fair point.”
dr. r: “healthy caution: i monitor risk and adjust. trauma response: i wait for collapse.”
me: “which one am i doing?”
dr. r: “you tell me. are you adjusting based on data or expecting disaster?”
me: “…adjusting based on data. watching win rate. planning size reduction if needed.”
dr. r: “that’s healthy caution. trauma would be ‘i’m about to lose everything.’”
useful distinction.
living with A. - routine locked #
morning routine perfected:
4am wake.
6:30am-10am trade.
10am breakfast together.
A.: “you want eggs?”
me: “always.”
same conversation every morning.
comfort in repetition.
evening routine:
6pm gym.
7pm dinner together.
8pm code or read.
11pm bed.
locked.
weekend plans #
saturday (1/27):
A. wants to try new sushi place.
i hate sushi.
she’s planning “incentives.”
this pattern works too well.
sunday (1/28):
rest day.
strategy review.
prep for february.
january target status #
original target: +$5-8k month
actual (4 weeks): +$27,200
beat low target: 5.4x
beat high target: 3.4x
week 5 (jan 29-31): 3 trading days left
conservative projection: +$30k month final
looking ahead to february #
expecting:
- higher volatility (VIX rising)
- choppier conditions
- lower win rate (70-75% range)
- need tighter risk management
adjusting:
- stricter filters
- 0.4% risk per trade (down from 0.5%)
- focus heavily on mean reversion
- reduce momentum trades
proactive not reactive.
account milestone approaching #
current: $393,400
sept peak (before disaster): $395,680
$2,280 away from recovering fully.
likely hit next week.
full circle.
sept disaster → nov recovery → jan growth → feb consolidation (hopefully).
tonight #
four weeks january.
+$27,200.
77% win rate.
original target crushed.
maintaining discipline through success.
monitoring for warning signs.
preparing for february variance.
this is working.
2:14am sunday. week 4 january. +$6,480. four weeks combined +$27.2k. 77% win rate. had first losing streak (3 losses) since november, circuit breaker worked. market conditions shifting slightly. preparing for choppier february.
-AK