weeks 2-3 february rough.
strategies not working.
market regime shifted.
weeks 2-3 trades (feb 8-16, feb 20-21) #
week 2 (feb 8-14):
valentine’s day week.
took wed off for date.
week 2 total: 11 trades, 6 wins (55%). +$1,240
week 3 (feb 20-21 so far):
presidents day monday (market closed).
tuesday-wednesday only.
week 3 so far: 4 trades, 2 wins (50%). -$380
combined weeks 2-3: -$1,140 net after week 3 losses eating week 2 gains
account status #
feb 7: $396,780
feb 21: $395,640
down from sept peak recovery.
win rate declining #
february progression:
- week 1: 62%
- week 2: 55%
- week 3: 50%
below 60% consistently.
mean reversion struggling:
january: 81% win rate
february: 56% win rate
25% decline.
market regime change confirmed.
what’s wrong #
1. whipsaw markets
mean reversion expects ranges.
current market: false breakouts, reversals failing.
strategy designed for different conditions.
2. correlation breakdown
everything moving together.
no diversification benefit.
all positions correlated +0.8.
3. volatility spike
VIX: 18 → 22 (week 2-3)
my strategies calibrated for VIX 12-16.
higher vol = wider stops = more losses.
circuit breaker triggered twice #
thursday 2/15:
trade 1: loss
trade 2: loss
trade 3: loss
3-loss circuit breaker triggered.
stopped trading rest of day.
tuesday 2/20:
trade 1: loss
trade 2: loss
trade 3: loss
circuit breaker triggered again.
stopped trading.
system working but concerning pattern.
therapy tuesday (2/20) #
dr. r: “circuit breaker triggered twice in 6 days. what’s happening?”
me: “strategies failing. market changed.”
dr. r: “how are you handling it?”
me: “frustrated but not spiraling. following system.”
dr. r: “different from september?”
me: “september i abandoned system and revenge traded. now i’m stopping when circuit breaker hits.”
dr. r: “what’s the plan?”
me: “reduce size more. tighten filters. maybe pause mean reversion entirely.”
dr. r: “sounds data-driven not emotional.”
me: “yeah. losing money sucks but not panicking.”
growth.
comparing to september disaster #
september 2023:
- strategies failing
- abandoned system
- revenge traded
- A. left
- lost $28k in 18 days
february 2024:
- strategies failing
- following circuit breaker
- not revenge trading
- A. stable
- down $1,140 in 2 weeks
difference: discipline.
risk management response #
current: 0.4% per trade
new (starting feb 22): 0.3% per trade
reason: lower win rate means smaller positions.
also:
- pausing momentum entirely
- only mean reversion A+ setups
- 3-loss circuit breaker stays
- may go to EOD only (exit intraday)
living with A. - trading stress #
tuesday night (2/20):
came home after second circuit breaker trigger.
frustrated AF.
A.: “rough day?”
me: “yeah. third losing streak in week.”
A.: “want to talk about it?”
me: “not really. just frustrated.”
A.: “ok. i’ll be here when you do.”
left me alone.
came back 30 min later with food.
didn’t make me talk.
exactly what i needed.
january standout month reality check #
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%)
way above normal.
that was notable month.
one of maybe 2x per year.
cannot sustain that.
february showing reality:
strategies have edge but it’s modest.
1-3% monthly is normal.
7% month = outlier.
regression to mean.
strategy adjustment planning #
weekend analysis (2/24-25):
need to:
- analyze why mean reversion failing
- test different parameters for current regime
- possibly add new strategy for high vol
- backtest on recent data (jan-feb)
not abandoning system.
adapting to new conditions.
market conditions #
VIX: 22 (high)
correlation: everything moving together
volume: erratic
range-bound assumption broken
trending environment maybe?
need momentum strategies instead of mean reversion.
but momentum hasn’t worked either.
challenging environment.
monthly projection #
february so far (3 weeks):
week 1: +$3,380
week 2: +$1,240
week 3: -$1,380
net: +$3,240
1 week left.
projection: flat to slightly negative month.
fine.
january crushed it.
february struggling.
that’s normal trading.
looking ahead #
last week february (2/26-28):
reduced risk to 0.3%.
only A+ setups.
may take thursday-friday off entirely.
preserve capital.
march:
strategy overhaul.
adapt to new regime.
maybe 2-3 week testing period with tiny size.
tonight #
weeks 2-3 february rough.
down $1,140 net.
circuit breaker triggered 2x.
strategies not working in current conditions.
but following discipline.
not spiraling.
this is the process.
3:42am thursday. weeks 2-3 february rough. combined -$1,140. circuit breaker triggered twice in 6 days. win rate declined from 62% to 50%. mean reversion failing in whipsaw markets. reduced risk to 0.3%, tighter filters. not panicking - following system. february likely flat month after january notable performance.
-AK