Skip to main content

september wrap - started strong ended disaster

september done.

started crushing it. ended in flames.

final numbers
#

goal: +$5,000

actual: +$1,330

missed goal by: -$3,670 (73.4% short)

account status
#

sept 1 start: $358,450

sept 30 end: $359,780

gain: +$1,330 (+0.37%)

barely positive.

weekly breakdown
#

week 1 (sep 1-7): +$1,480

week 2 (sep 8-14): +$1,340

week 3 (sep 15-21): +$850

week 4 (sep 22-30): -$2,340

first 3 weeks: +$3,670

last week: gave it all back plus some.

Monthly Returns

Figure 1: September weekly returns showing strong first 3 weeks then catastrophic week 4 collapse. Green bars = profitable weeks, red bar = disaster week.

strategy performance
#

mean reversion:

  • trades: 18
  • wins: 12
  • losses: 6
  • win rate: 67%
  • net: -$510

collapsed in week 4. went from 82% win rate to 67%.

momentum:

  • trades: 15
  • wins: 13
  • losses: 2
  • win rate: 87%
  • net: +$3,180

still profitable but took 2 losses in week 4 (emotional trading).

crypto:

  • trades: 14
  • wins: 11
  • losses: 3
  • win rate: 79%
  • net: +$1,660

saved the month. only reason september positive.

Strategy Performance

Figure 2: Strategy performance comparison for September. Crypto carried the month. Mean reversion went negative. Momentum profitable but declining.

what went right (weeks 1-3)
#

1. momentum strategy validation

13 trades, 13 wins first 3 weeks.

perfect execution.

then emotions fucked it up week 4.

2. crypto research

started altcoin paper trading.

SOL, ADA, DOGE showing promise.

3. infrastructure upgrades

chicago colocation 1gbe → 10gbe.

latency improvements verified.

4. correlation analysis

identified mean rev ↔ momentum 0.68 correlation.

reduced position sizes appropriately.

5. relationship progress

A. and i became exclusive.

she agreed to move in november 1.

then i fucked it all up.

what went wrong (week 4)
#

everything.

1. fight with A. (sept 24)

she handed me lease termination papers.

i panicked. asked for space.

she left.

haven’t seen her in 6 days.

2. emotional trading

can’t focus without her.

violated every rule.

revenge trading. oversized positions. ignored stops.

3. gave back 3 weeks gains

+$3,670 weeks 1-3.

-$2,340 week 4.

net: +$1,330 (useless).

4. momentum strategy damaged

took 2 losses week 4 after 13 straight wins.

both emotional trades.

5. mean reversion collapsed

67% win rate (was 82% after week 2).

6 losses total, 4 in week 4.

all emotional.

drawdown analysis
#

Drawdown Chart

Figure 3: September equity curve with drawdown. First 21 days smooth growth then -6.5% drawdown final week. Worst drawdown since March 2023.

max drawdown: -6.5% (week 4)

recovery time: TBD (month ended before recovery)

cause: emotional trading after fight with A.

lesson: relationships affect trading more than i admitted.

comparison to august
#

august: +$6,340 (crushed goal)

september: +$1,330 (failed goal)

difference: -$5,010 worse

why: august = stable relationship, focused trading

september = relationship chaos, emotional trading

mistakes made
#

1. traded through emotional crisis

should’ve stopped trading after fight.

kept going. made it worse.

2. increased position size when tilted

correct move: reduce to 0.25% or stop.

actual move: kept at 0.5%, amplified losses.

3. revenge trading

took 5 trades week 4 that filters blocked.

ignored system. chased losses.

4. relationship self-sabotage

pushed A. away when she tried to get closer.

exactly what therapy warned me about.

lessons learned
#

1. don’t trade emotional

$2,340 lesson.

when personal life chaos = stop trading.

2. relationships > trading

thought i could separate them.

wrong.

if relationship broken = trading broken.

3. patterns repeat until you break them

pushed A. away like i pushed others away.

avoidant attachment.

costs me relationships AND money.

4. therapy homework isn’t optional

dr. r gave me tools to avoid this.

i didn’t use them.

paid the price.

october goals
#

financial: +$3,500 (recover september losses)

personal: fix shit with A. or accept it’s over

trading: don’t trade tilted, stick to systems, reduce size when emotional

therapy: 2x per week until relationship/attachment shit resolved

what i’m doing tomorrow (oct 1)
#

going to A.’s place.

telling her everything.

begging if i have to.

reflection on september
#

started strong. ended disaster.

proved i can trade profitably when emotionally stable.

proved i can’t trade for shit when relationship chaos.

lost A. (maybe).

lost focus.

lost money.

need to fix one to fix the other.

looking ahead
#

october starts tomorrow.

either with A. back or accepting she’s gone.

either trading clear-headed or staying sidelined.

can’t force it.

have to fix myself first.


11:58pm saturday. september done. +$1,330 but should’ve been +$5k. gave back $3,670 in week 4 emotional trading. going to A.’s place tomorrow. scared as fuck.

-AK

Related

august wrap - crushed goal by 50%
august done. best month yet. final numbers # goal: +$4,000 actual: +$6,340 beat goal by: +$2,340 (58.5% over target)
july wrap - best month yet, crushed the goal
july done. best trading month yet. final numbers # goal: +$3,500 actual: +$6,120 beat goal by: +$2,620 (75% over target)
worst trading week since august - down $2,340
worst week in 2 months. down $2,340. can’t focus. week 4 trades # 9/25 monday: -$485 (momentum false breakout, stopped too wide)
september week 3 - almost hit monthly goal
week 3 done. close to hitting september goal with 9 days left. week 3 trades # 9/18 monday: +$340 (mean reversion QQQ)
september week 2 - hit $360k milestone
week 2 done. hit $360k account milestone wednesday. week 2 trades # 9/11 monday: +$185 (QQQ call spread)
september week 1 - slow grind up
week 1 september done. slow week. consistent gains. week 1 trades # 9/1 friday: +$965 (mean reversion +$425, momentum +$540)