week 3 done.
close to hitting september goal with 9 days left.
week 3 trades #
9/18 monday: +$340 (mean reversion QQQ)
9/19 tuesday: +$205 (crypto BTC breakout)
9/20 wednesday: -$180 (momentum false breakout, first loss)
9/21 thursday: +$485 (mean reversion SPX, crypto ETH)
week 3 total: +$850
september month-to-date #
week 1: +$1,480
week 2: +$1,340
week 3: +$850
total: +$3,670
progress to goal: 73.4% ($5k goal)
need: $1,330 more in 9 days
should hit it easily.
account status #
sept 1 start: $358,450
current sept 21: $362,120
gain: +$3,670 (+1.02%)
momentum strategy first loss #
date: 9/20 wednesday
entry: NQ breakout at 15,248
volume: 1.6x average (confirmed)
consolidation: 22 periods tight
exit: stopped out at 15,232
loss: -$180
analysis: false breakout. volume was weak sellers not strong buyers. need tighter volume filter.
momentum record now: 13 trades, 12 wins, 1 loss (92% win rate).
still impressive but variance catching up.
correlation analysis impact #
ran correlation study tuesday (posted).
found mean reversion ↔ momentum = 0.68 correlation.
immediate actions taken:
-
reduced momentum position size 0.5% → 0.4% risk
-
added correlation check before entries (if mean rev position open, block momentum)
-
researching premium selling (target <0.3 correlation)
crypto paper trading started #
began paper trading SOL, ADA, DOGE on monday.
results so far (3 days):
SOL:
- trades: 2
- wins: 2
- net: +$340 (paper)
ADA:
- trades: 1
- wins: 1
- net: +$155 (paper)
DOGE:
- trades: 1
- wins: 0
- net: -$125 (paper, got chopped)
too early to validate.
need 20+ trades each before going live.
relationship update #
A. has been here every night for 2 weeks straight.
basically living together at this point.
sunday (9/17) conversation:
me: “you’re here like 6 nights a week now.”
A: “is that a problem?”
me: “no. just noticing. feels natural.”
A: “want me to officially move in? my lease is up in november.”
fuck. that’s real.
me: “let me think about it.”
not saying no. just processing.
therapy session tomorrow (9/22) gonna discuss this.
risks ahead #
1. overconfidence after momentum loss
one loss = reality check.
staying humble. keeping size reduced.
2. crypto expansion too fast
paper trading 3 new altcoins simultaneously.
might be spreading attention too thin.
3. relationship moving fast
A. wants to move in november.
that’s 6 weeks away.
we’ve been exclusive 3 weeks.
feels right but also scary.
next week plan #
financial: +$1,500 minimum (need $1,330 to hit goal)
trading: collect 5+ more momentum trades, validate tighter volume filter
crypto: continue paper trading, need 15 more trades before live
personal: therapy friday to discuss A. moving in
reflection #
september crushing it. +$3,670 so far.
momentum took first loss. needed that reality check.
correlation analysis = immediate position sizing adjustments.
relationship getting serious. A. might move in november.
life moving fast.
2:28am friday. week 3 done. +$850 this week. momentum first loss was lesson learned. A. wants to move in. lots to process.
-AK