july done.
modest summer month.
discipline maintained through variance.
july final numbers #
starting (july 1): $431,180
ending (july 31): $433,900
july gain: +$2,720 (+0.63%)
trades: 31
wins: 17
losses: 14
win rate: 55%
Figure 1: July weekly performance showing summer variance. Week 1 slow start (+$1,220, 57% wr), Week 2 first losing week since May (-$1,740, 25% wr - summer volume crash), Week 3 recovery (+$1,480, 63% wr), Week 4 consistency (+$1,760, 75% wr). Month ended +$2,720 (+0.63%). Summer conditions demonstrated: lower volume, wider slippage, reduced edge.
weekly breakdown #
Figure 2: Summer volume impact on slippage throughout July. Week 1 volume down 22% → 2.1 tick slippage. Week 2 volume crash 28% → worst slippage all year 2.8 ticks (contributed to -$1,740 loss). Weeks 3-4 volume stabilized → slippage improved to 2.0-2.2 ticks. July avg slippage 2.3 ticks vs June 1.9 ticks. Summer months = higher execution costs. Correlation between volume and slippage clear.
week 1: +$1,220, 57% wr, 7 trades
week 2: -$1,740, 25% wr, 8 trades (first losing week since may)
week 3: +$1,480, 63% wr, 8 trades
week 4: +$1,760, 75% wr, 8 trades
3 positive weeks, 1 losing week.
normal pattern.
comparing to previous months 2024 #
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - impressive
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%) - notable
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%) - normal
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%) - modest
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%) - modest
pattern consistent: 2 notable, 5 modest/flat.
sustainable pace.
ytd 2024 progress #
Figure 3: Year-to-date 2024 monthly progression through July. Pattern shows 2 strong months (Jan +7.4%, Apr +5.9%) cannot sustain. Five modest/flat months (Feb +0.36%, Mar +0.28%, May +0.83%, Jun +1.97%, Jul +0.63%) demonstrate realistic algo trading. YTD total +$67,700 (+18.5%). Annual target 15-18% exceeded - need flat/losing months H2 to finish in range. Sustainable trading requires variance acceptance.
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%)
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%)
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%)
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%)
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%)
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%)
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%)
ytd total: +$67,700 (+18.5%)
starting balance (jan 1): $366,200
current balance (july 31): $433,900
annual target analysis #
ytd: +18.5% in 7 months
annual target: +15-18%
above target by 0.5%.
H2 2024 (5 months remaining):
should target: flat to slightly negative total.
achievable with:
- 3-4 flat months (+0% to +0.5%)
- 1-2 small losing months (-1% to -2%)
still finish 15-18% annual.
circuit breaker performance #
week 2 close call:
5 total losses but not 3 consecutive.
thursday: -$920 (2 losses).
threshold not triggered but monitored.
last trigger: never (implemented post-sept 2023 disaster).
effectiveness: prevented 20x worse outcome vs sept 2023.
risk management stats #
position sizing: $1,500 all trades (consistent)
circuit breaker: not triggered (1 close call week 2)
max drawdown: -$1,740 (0.4%)
filters: 51% acceptance avg
variance:
- week 2 low: 38%
- week 4 high: 61%
regime confidence avg: 0.71
variance:
- week 2 low: 0.54
- week 4 high: 0.78
filters adapted correctly.
market conditions #
summer reality:
avg volume: -25% vs june
avg VIX: 16.1 (optimal but whipsaw)
avg correlation: 0.61 (acceptable)
avg regime stability: 0.71 (lower than june 0.76)
summer = different conditions.
lower participation = different dynamics.
slippage tracking #
july avg: 2.3 ticks
june avg: 1.9 ticks
april avg: 1.7 ticks
summer degradation expected.
weekly variance:
week 2 worst: 2.8 ticks (volume crash).
week 4 best: 2.0 ticks (stabilization).
chicago colo still helping.
without it, summer would be 3.5+ ticks.
comparing to expectations #
early july estimate: +$2k to +$4k
actual: +$2,720
mid-range hit.
summer modest confirmed.
lessons from july #
1. summer is different
can’t compare to spring performance.
lower volume = lower edge.
2. losing weeks normal
week 2 first since may = good ratio.
3. recovery matters more than perfect record
week 2 loss → weeks 3-4 recovery = discipline.
4. filters prevent disasters
38% acceptance week 2 saved capital.
5. relationship stability enables trading stability
8.5 months with A. = psychological foundation.
comparing to 2023 #
july 2023:
- learning phase
- losing money
- small position sizes
- emotional responses
july 2024:
- validated strategies
- +$2,720 profit
- full position size
- disciplined execution
1 year progress.
therapy reflection (7/25) #
dr. r: “july wrapping up. thoughts?”
me: “solid. 1 losing week, 3 modest weeks. exactly what summer should look like.”
dr. r: “and personally?”
me: “good. 8.5 months with A. thinking about future more.”
dr. r: “marriage still on your mind?”
me: “yeah. not planning anything yet but the thought stays.”
dr. r: “that’s growth. you’re thinking long-term now.”
exactly.
living with A. - 8.5 months #
what’s working:
sunday morning breakfast routine.
comfortable silence most evenings.
sex life still incredible (places list: 20).
separate workspaces during day.
what’s friction:
still the coffee mug thing (stupid but real).
her mess vs my OCD (ongoing negotiation).
friday alone time rule (works but sometimes i miss her).
overall:
best relationship i’ve had.
first one where i’m thinking years not weeks.
august preview #
expectations:
summer continues.
august typically slowest month.
realistic outcomes:
flat month (+0% to +0.5%) - likely.
small gain (+0.5% to +1%) - possible.
small loss (-1% to -2%) - acceptable.
ytd already above target.
no pressure.
what success looks like #
july success:
maintained discipline through losing week.
recovered weeks 3-4.
ended month positive despite summer.
filters adapted correctly.
not exciting but sustainable.
this is long-term algo trading.
tonight (july 31, 11:42pm) #
july done.
+$2,720 (+0.63%).
55% win rate.
3 modest weeks, 1 losing week.
summer variance accepted.
filters prevented disaster.
ytd +$67,700 (+18.5%).
annual target exceeded.
august begins tomorrow.
realistic expectations.
execute system.
accept variance.
11:42pm wednesday. july wrap. +$2,720 (0.63%). 55% win rate across 31 trades. weekly pattern: +$1,220, -$1,740 (first losing week since may), +$1,480, +$1,760. summer slippage avg 2.3 ticks vs june 1.9. ytd +$67,700 (18.5%) above target - need flat H2 to finish 15-18% range. discipline maintained through variance. sustainable trading demonstrated.
-AK