week 1 may done.
reality check arrived.
april won’t repeat.
week 1 trades (apr 29 - may 3) #
monday 4/29: market closed (observed holiday)
tuesday 4/30: 2 trades, 1 win. +$280
wednesday 5/1: 3 trades, 1 win. -$620
thursday 5/2: 2 trades, 1 win. +$180
friday 5/3: 2 trades, 1 win. +$240
week total: 9 trades, 4 wins (44%). +$80
account status #
apr 30: $419,360
may 3: $419,440
week 1: +$80 (+0.02%)
basically flat.
comparing to april #
april avg week: +$5,865 per week
may week 1: +$80
99% decrease.
variance.
what changed #
market conditions shifted:
april: VIX 14-19, low-medium vol, ideal
may week 1: VIX 18-24, higher vol, choppy
regime: shifted from medium to high vol tuesday
my strategy thrives in 14-19 VIX range.
above 20 = struggle.
wednesday disaster (5/1) #
opened with 3 setups.
all looked good on paper.
VIX spiked 18.2 → 23.8 by 11am.
regime whipsaw.
my intraday stability check caught it.
stopped new entries.
but already in 3 positions.
all 3 stopped out.
-$620 day.
exactly what i expected could happen.
risk management response #
thursday-friday:
reduced position size to $1,200.
filtered more aggressively (only 4 setups passed).
took 2 trades each day.
preserved capital.
+$180 thu, +$240 fri.
small wins but positive.
win rate reality #
april: 74% win rate
may week 1: 44% win rate
30 percentage point drop.
this is normal variance.
april had perfect conditions.
may conditions changed.
strategy adapts but can’t force wins.
psychology check #
old me (sept 2023):
would’ve panicked wednesday.
revenge traded thursday.
blown up more.
current me:
accepted loss wednesday.
reduced size thursday.
stayed disciplined.
growth.
therapy tuesday (4/30) #
dr. r: “may starts tomorrow. expectations?”
me: “realistic. april crushed. may probably struggles.”
dr. r: “how do you feel about that?”
me: “fine. can’t expect april monthly. variance normal.”
dr. r: “and if may is actually losing month?”
me: “acceptable. preserve capital. execute system. results secondary.”
dr. r: “that’s mature trading psychology.”
wednesday proved it.
lost $620, didn’t spiral.
comparing to targets #
ytd: +$53,240 (+14.5%)
annual target: +15-18%
already at target pace.
may can be flat/losing without concern.
no pressure.
market regime analysis #
april regime: primarily low-medium vol (VIX 14-19)
may week 1: high vol spike (VIX 18-24)
correlation: rose from 0.44 to 0.68
everything moving together.
no diversification benefit.
conditions not ideal.
adaptive strategy response #
tuesday: detected regime shift to high vol
parameters adjusted:
- lookback: 10 days (from 15)
- entry: 2.6 std dev (from 2.3)
- size: $1,200 (from $1,500)
worked correctly.
filtered out bad setups thursday-friday.
only took high-quality trades.
system functioning.
weekly projection update #
week 1: +$80
if conditions stay choppy:
week 2-4 could be:
- flat weeks (+$0 to +$500)
- small losing weeks (-$500 to -$1,000)
may end: +$0 to +$2,000 (+0% to +0.5%)
realistic after strong april.
slippage check #
april avg: 1.7 ticks
may week 1: 2.3 ticks
slippage worse in high vol.
wider spreads.
faster moves.
expected.
living with A. - support #
wednesday night:
came home after -$620 day.
A.: “rough day?”
me: “yeah. lost $620. market whipsawed.”
A.: “you okay?”
me: “yeah. happens. april was outlier. may showing reality.”
A.: “you seem calm about it.”
me: “because it’s expected. can’t win every month.”
A.: “that’s different from before.”
she’s right.
september 2023 losing day = spiral.
may 2024 losing day = acceptance.
what’s working #
risk management:
reduced size when conditions changed.
filtered aggressively.
preserved capital.
psychology:
no revenge trading.
no panic.
accepted variance.
relationship:
A. supportive regardless of results.
stable home life.
what’s not working #
market conditions:
VIX too high for my strategy.
correlation too high.
can’t force trades in wrong conditions.
looking ahead week 2 #
if VIX stays >20:
continue reduced size.
selective trading.
capital preservation mode.
if VIX drops <18:
return to full size.
normal execution.
let conditions dictate approach.
tonight #
week 1 may.
+$80 (basically flat).
44% win rate.
april notable performance ended.
may showing normal variance.
exactly as expected.
system followed.
discipline maintained.
2:44am saturday. week 1 may. +$80 (0.02%). 44% win rate. april crushed, may reality check. VIX spiked 18→24, regime shifted. lost $620 wednesday, stayed disciplined. reduced size, filtered aggressively. preserved capital. variance accepted.
-AK