week 3 april done.
third week at full size $1,500.
stability holding.
week 3 trades (apr 15-19) #
monday 4/15: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$1,560
tuesday 4/16: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$1,480
wednesday 4/17: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$1,620
thursday 4/18: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$1,340
friday 4/19: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$1,720
week total: 12 trades, 10 wins (83%). +$7,720
account progression #
apr 1: $395,900
apr 12: $405,300
apr 19: $413,020
april total (3 weeks): +$17,120 (+4.3%)
crushing it.
comparing 3 weeks #
week 1: +$2,400 (69% wr, ramping size)
week 2: +$7,000 (69% wr, full size)
week 3: +$7,720 (83% wr, full size)
improvement week over week.
win rate climbing.
strategy optimizing.
validation complete.
what changed week 3 #
improved regime detection:
intraday stability checks.
0 false regime triggers.
filtered 3 low-confidence setups.
all 3 would’ve lost.
saved ~$900.
tighter entry execution:
added limit orders with 2-tick buffer.
slippage down to 1.6 ticks avg.
was 1.9 ticks week 2.
small improvement = $360 saved.
risk management check #
position sizing: consistent $1,500
max losing streak: 1 loss (only happened once)
circuit breaker: not triggered
win rate: 83% this week
filters: passing 58% of signals (selective)
all systems green.
market conditions ideal #
VIX range: 14-17 (low to medium vol)
regime stability: high (0.88 avg confidence)
correlation: low (0.42)
setups: excellent quality
this is the environment my strategy thrives in.
when VIX stays 14-17, mean reversion prints.
monthly projection update #
april progress (3 weeks):
week 1: +$2,400
week 2: +$7,000
week 3: +$7,720
total: +$17,120 (4.3%)
1 week left.
projection:
if maintains 70%+ win rate:
week 4: +$4-6k
april end: +$21-23k (5.3% to 5.8%)
strong month but need to watch annual pace.
ytd reality check #
Q1 end: +$29,700 (8.1%)
april (so far): +$17,120 (4.3%)
ytd current: +$46,820 (12.8%)
annualized pace: ~51%
NOT SUSTAINABLE.
need flat/losing months Q2-Q4 to bring annual back to 15-18% range.
april standout like january.
can’t expect this every month.
comparing to targets #
annual target: +15% to +18% ($55k to $66k total)
current ytd: +12.8% ($46,820)
remaining budget: +2.2% to +5.2% for rest of year
that’s 8 months remaining.
need flat/modest gains may-december.
next week final push #
week 4 (apr 22-26):
maintain discipline.
don’t get greedy.
keep full size.
target 60%+ win rate.
goal: +$4-6k to finish strong
total april target: $21-23k
realistic but ambitious.
therapy tuesday (4/16) #
dr. r: “three weeks full size. how’s it feel?”
me: “good. confident. not anxious like past full size periods.”
dr. r: “what’s different?”
me: “september 2023 full size was overconfident without validation. march 2024 tested tiny size first. april executing proven strategy.”
dr. r: “evidence-based confidence.”
me: “exactly. not gambling. executing business plan.”
dr. r: “how’s home life affecting trading?”
me: “stable. A’s been great. routine locked. no distractions.”
exactly.
strategy evolution #
january: static parameters, low vol, crushing
february: static parameters, higher vol, struggling
march: tested adaptive parameters, tiny size
april: executing adaptive strategy, full size, back to crushing
the testing in march paid off.
validated adaptive approach before committing capital.
patience = profit.
slippage improvement tracking #
march testing: 2.4 ticks avg (small size)
april week 1: 1.8 ticks avg
april week 2: 1.9 ticks avg
april week 3: 1.6 ticks avg
improving execution.
limit orders with buffer working.
tonight #
week 3 april.
+$7,720.
83% win rate.
third consecutive strong week.
full size validated.
adaptive strategy working perfectly.
1 week left to finish april strong.
3:08am monday. week 3 april complete. +$7,720 (83% wr). full size $1,500 all week. regime detection improvements working - 0 false triggers. month total +$17,120 (4.3%). account $413,020. ytd +12.8%. strong month but watching annual pace.
-AK