may starts tomorrow.
after crushing april.
realistic expectations required.
april recap #
+$23,460 (+5.9%)
74% win rate
53 trades
impressive month.
second outlier 2024 (january was first).
may reality #
april won’t repeat.
market conditions perfect for my strategy.
may conditions uncertain.
possible outcomes:
scenario 1 (40% probability): flat month
- +0% to +1%
- choppy conditions
- strategies struggle
- capital preserved
scenario 2 (35% probability): modest gains
- +1% to +2%
- mixed conditions
- selective opportunities
- consistent execution
scenario 3 (25% probability): losing month
- -1% to -3%
- regime shift
- parameters don’t match conditions
- acceptable drawdown
all outcomes acceptable.
strategy adjustments for may #
continuing adaptive approach:
regime detection with intraday stability.
lively parameters based on VIX.
no changes to core logic.
april proved it works.
potential tweaks:
- tighter filters if correlation rises
- reduced size if VIX >22
- pause momentum if breaks below 50% wr
defensive adjustments only.
position sizing plan #
base size: $1,500 (proven in april)
adjustments:
low vol (VIX <15): full $1,500
medium vol (VIX 15-20): full $1,500
high vol (VIX 20-25): reduce to $1,200
extreme vol (VIX >25): reduce to $800 or pause
fluid sizing based on conditions.
circuit breaker rules #
3-loss streak: reduce size 50% for 3 days
5-loss streak: stop trading 1 week
-3% drawdown: review strategy, potentially pause
-5% drawdown: mandatory 1 week break
protect capital during struggles.
ytd targets revisited #
current ytd: +$53,160 (+14.5%)
annual target: +15% to +18%
math:
to hit +15% annual: need +$1,770 more (8 months)
to hit +18% annual: need +$12,756 more (8 months)
already at target pace.
rest of year can be modest/flat/losing.
no pressure.
may trade targets #
realistic:
20-30 trades total
60-65% win rate
+0% to +2% month
conservative after notable april.
market expectations #
VIX forecast: probably 15-20 range
correlation: could rise (earnings season)
regime: likely medium vol
not ideal conditions but workable.
what could go wrong #
scenario: market regime shift
VIX spikes >25.
strategies break.
response: reduce size, pause if needed.
scenario: correlation spike
everything moves together.
no diversification.
response: tighter position limits, skip correlated setups.
scenario: false signals
whipsaw markets.
mean reversion fails.
response: filter aggressively, accept lower trade count.
prepared for problems.
comparing to may 2023 #
may 2023:
still learning.
lost money.
testing strategies.
may 2024:
strategies proven.
adaptive approach validated.
confident execution.
growth.
therapy insight for may #
from last session (4/25):
dr. r emphasized accepting variance.
april strong won’t repeat.
may could struggle.
both normal.
focus on process not results.
execute system regardless of outcomes.
psychology preparation.
weekend prep tasks #
saturday:
- backtest parameter optimization
- review regime detection accuracy
- analyze slippage patterns
sunday:
- update filters for earnings season
- stress test strategy on high-vol scenarios
- prepare mentally for variance
monday: may begins.
first week may plan #
mon 5/6: observe only, no trades (market open feeling)
tue-fri: selective trading, prove strategy still works
target week 1: 4-6 trades, 60%+ wr, modest gains
no pressure to match april.
relationship context #
A. supportive regardless of performance.
april crushing = calm.
may struggling = also calm.
stable home life helps trading psychology.
what success looks like in may #
success ≠ repeating april.
success = executing system.
even if:
- win rate drops to 55-60%
- month ends flat
- small loss occurs
if system followed: success.
if discipline maintained: success.
results secondary to process.
tonight (apr 30, 2:18am) #
april done.
may starts tomorrow.
expectations:
april impressive won’t repeat.
may probably flat/modest.
possibly losing.
all acceptable.
focus:
execute system.
preserve capital.
stay disciplined.
accept variance.
this is sustainable algo trading.
2:18am wednesday. may preview. april +$23,460 (5.9%) impressive month won’t repeat. may expectations: flat to +2% likely, -1 to -3% possible, all acceptable. ytd +14.5% already at annual target pace. no pressure. focus on process not results. system execution regardless of outcomes.
-AK