week 2 july done.
first losing week since may.
summer volatility brutal.
week 2 trades (july 8-12) #
monday 7/8: 2 trades, 0 wins. -$880
tuesday 7/9: 1 trade, 1 win. +$340
wednesday 7/10: 2 trades, 1 win. +$180
thursday 7/11: 2 trades, 0 wins. -$920
friday 7/12: 1 trade, 0 wins. -$460
week total: 8 trades, 2 wins (25%). -$1,740
account status #
july 5: $432,400
july 12: $430,660
week 2: -$1,740 (-0.40%)
july MTD (2 weeks): -$520 (-0.12%)
ytd: +$64,460 (+17.6%)
down week accepted.
what went wrong #
VIX whipsaw:
monday: VIX 14.2 → signals look good → loses.
thursday: VIX 18.9 → different regime → loses.
couldn’t catch regime.
volume:
summer lows.
avg daily volume: -28% vs june.
worse fills, more slippage.
correlation spike:
monday 0.38 → friday 0.82.
edge disappeared midweek.
circuit breaker check #
threshold: 3 consecutive losses OR -$1,500 single day.
this week:
monday: 2 losses (-$880).
thursday: 2 losses (-$920).
friday: 1 loss (-$460).
total: 5 losses but not consecutive.
didn’t trigger but close.
comparing two weeks july #
week 1: +$1,220 (57% wr, 7 trades)
week 2: -$1,740 (25% wr, 8 trades)
difference: -$2,960
normal variance.
last losing week: may week 3.
2 months between losing weeks = acceptable.
slippage impact #
week 2: 2.8 ticks avg
week 1: 2.1 ticks
summer volume killing fills.
monday: 3.2 ticks (worst all year).
lower volume = wider spreads = worse slippage.
risk management #
position size: $1,500 maintained
circuit breaker: not triggered (no 3 consecutive)
filters: 38% acceptance (way down from 51% week 1)
regime confidence: 0.54 (low)
filters correctly identified poor conditions.
prevented worse disaster.
strategy performance #
regime-adaptive mean reversion:
low vol (3 trades): 1 win, 2 losses (33% wr)
medium vol (3 trades): 1 win, 2 losses (33% wr)
high vol (2 trades): 0 wins, 2 losses (0% wr)
strategy struggled across all regimes.
summer conditions = different beast.
july projection update #
2 weeks complete: -$520
2 weeks remaining
revised estimate:
if conditions improve: +$2k to +$3k possible.
if summer continues: flat to +$1k likely.
july total estimate: +$1,500 to +$2,500 (+0.35% to +0.58%)
way below june but acceptable.
ytd sustainability #
ytd: +17.6%
target: 15-18%
still above target.
july loss brings closer to target range.
actually good for annual sustainability.
therapy session (7/9) #
dr. r: “rough week. first losing week in 2 months.”
me: “yeah. summer vol is different. strategy struggling.”
dr. r: “how do you feel about it?”
me: “annoyed but not panicked. it happens. filters reduced trades. prevented disaster.”
dr. r: “and the birthday? you mentioned marriage thoughts?”
me: “yeah. thought about it twice that day. never thought that about anyone.”
dr. r: “that’s significant. secure attachment developing.”
me: “feels real. but too soon to actually do anything.”
dr. r: “awareness is growth. you’re capable of commitment now.”
exactly.
living with A. through losing week #
monday night:
came home stressed.
A.: “bad day?”
me: “lost $880.”
A.: “want to talk or want space?”
me: “space.”
gave me 2 hours.
thursday night:
worse day. -$920.
came to desk, didn’t say anything.
A. brought coffee 30 minutes later.
didn’t talk about trading.
just left coffee, kissed my head, went back to her desk.
exactly what needed.
what’s working despite losses #
1. circuit breaker discipline
didn’t trigger but monitored closely.
2. filter adaptation
38% acceptance prevented more damage.
3. psychological stability
no revenge trading after losses.
4. relationship support
A. giving space when needed = huge.
week 3 expectations #
summer continues.
realistic outcomes:
modest recovery +$1k to +$2k.
or flat week.
accepting summer is different.
can’t force wins.
lessons from week 2 #
1. losing weeks happen
2 months between losing weeks = good ratio.
2. summer is different
lower volume = different conditions.
3. filters save capital
38% acceptance prevented disaster.
4. relationship stability helps
A. supporting through losses = psychological edge.
tonight #
week 2 july.
-$1,740.
25% win rate.
first losing week since may.
summer volatility brutal.
filters prevented worse.
july MTD: -$520.
ytd still +17.6%.
week 3 begins tomorrow.
2:48am monday. week 2 july complete. -$1,740 (-0.40%). 25% win rate. first losing week since may week 3. summer volume down 28%, slippage worst all year 2.8 ticks avg. filters reduced acceptance 51%→38% prevented disaster. circuit breaker almost triggered. july MTD -$520. ytd +17.6% still above target.
-AK