week 1 july done.
slow start.
summer conditions = lower volume.
week 1 trades (july 1-5) #
monday 7/1: 2 trades, 1 win. +$340
tuesday 7/2: 1 trade, 1 win. +$460
wednesday 7/3: 2 trades, 1 win. +$180
thursday 7/4: no trades (july 4 holiday, markets closed)
friday 7/5: 2 trades, 1 win. +$240
week total: 7 trades, 4 wins (57%). +$1,220
account status #
july 1: $431,180
july 5: $432,400
week 1: +$1,220 (+0.28%)
ytd: +$66,200 (+18.1%)
slow but positive.
summer trading reality #
volume down:
avg daily volume: -22% vs june avg.
summer vacation = fewer participants.
VIX: 15.2 avg (optimal range but low end)
correlation: 0.44 (good diversification)
regime stability: 0.79 (stable but cautious)
conditions adequate not significant.
comparing to june week 1 #
june week 1: +$2,040 (75% wr, 8 trades)
july week 1: +$1,220 (57% wr, 7 trades)
lower performance, lower volume.
summer pattern starting.
slippage tracking #
july week 1: 2.1 ticks avg
june avg: 1.9 ticks
lower volume = slightly worse fills.
expected during summer.
risk management #
position size: $1,500 full size
circuit breaker: not triggered
filters: 51% acceptance rate (lower than june 59%)
regime confidence: 0.79 avg
max losing streak: 1
conservative filtering during summer.
july expectations #
realistic outcomes:
summer months typically slower.
july likely: +$2k to +$4k total (+0.5% to +1%)
ytd already at 18.1%.
target: 15-18%.
july can be flat and still finish in target.
birthday tomorrow #
july 4.
turn 22.
taking day off.
A. cooking dinner.
details tomorrow.
tonight #
week 1 july.
+$1,220.
57% win rate.
slow summer start.
july 4 tomorrow.
birthday.
3:15am monday. week 1 july complete. +$1,220 (0.28%). 57% win rate. summer volume down 22%, slippage up to 2.1 ticks. filters conservative 51% acceptance. ytd +18.1% above target range. july 4 birthday tomorrow.
-AK