half of june done.
on track for modest month.
exactly as expected.
first half june performance #
week 1 (june 3-7): +$2,040
week 2 (june 10-14): +$3,180
total (2 weeks): +$5,220 (+1.24%)
trades: 18
wins: 14
losses: 4
win rate: 78%
account progression #
june 1: $422,860
june 14: $428,080
gain: +$5,220
ytd: +$61,880 (+16.9%)
comparing to previous months 2024 #
january (full month): +$27,200 (+7.4%) - standout
february (full month): +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march (full month): +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing
april (full month): +$23,460 (+5.9%) - standout
may (full month): +$3,500 (+0.83%) - normal
june (half month): +$5,220 (+1.24%) - modest
june already exceeded may with half month remaining.
second half projection #
current pace: +$2,600/week avg
if pace continues:
week 3: +$2,000 to +$3,000
week 4: +$2,000 to +$3,000
june total estimate: +$9,200 to +$11,200 (+2.2% to +2.6%)
modest month confirmed.
market conditions first half #
VIX range: 15-18
avg VIX: 16.3
perfect range for mean reversion.
correlation: 0.49 avg (low)
regime stability: 0.82 (very stable)
ideal conditions.
slippage tracking #
week 1: 1.9 ticks
week 2: 1.7 ticks
first half avg: 1.8 ticks
chicago colo working.
approaching april levels (1.7 ticks).
strategy performance #
regime-adaptive mean reversion:
total trades: 18
low vol: 12 trades (10 wins, 2 losses) - 83% wr
medium vol: 6 trades (4 wins, 2 losses) - 67% wr
low volatility regime = optimal conditions.
strategy succeeding.
risk management stats #
position sizing: $1,500 full size (all trades)
circuit breaker: never triggered
max losing streak: 1 (happened 4x, stopped immediately)
filters: 64% acceptance rate
regime confidence: 0.82 avg
max drawdown: -$680 (0.16%)
everything within normal parameters.
comparing first half to expectations #
expected: modest +$4,000 to +$6,000 (half month)
actual: +$5,220
exactly in expected range.
no surprises.
sustainable pace.
ytd analysis #
ytd: +16.9% in 5.5 months
annualized pace: ~37%
target annual: 15-18%
reality check:
already in target range.
second half 2024 can be:
- 4 flat months
- 2 modest months
- 1 losing month
still finish 15-18% annual.
pressure: zero.
what’s working #
1. strategy-market fit
current VIX range perfect for mean reversion.
2. infrastructure reliability
chicago colo zero outages.
latency 12ms consistent.
3. psychological discipline
not chasing april standout.
accepting modest as normal.
4. personal stability
living with A. 7 months.
routine locked = calm execution.
second half expectations #
market forecast:
VIX likely 15-19 range (summer typical).
if holds: similar performance weeks 3-4.
risk scenarios:
VIX spike >22 = reduce trades.
correlation jump >0.7 = edge decreases.
regime shift = circuit breaker may trigger.
most likely:
continuation of modest trend.
week 3: +$2k to +$3k.
week 4: +$2k to +$3k.
acceptable outcomes.
comparing to last year #
june 2023:
still losing money.
testing strategies.
small position sizes.
emotional trading.
june 2024:
profitable.
strategies validated.
full position size.
disciplined execution.
1 year transformation.
lessons from first half june #
1. consistency > standout
2 weeks of modest gains = sustainable.
1 week of standout = often followed by mean reversion.
2. conditions matter
VIX 15-18 = perfect for my strategy.
can’t force wins outside this range.
3. infrastructure pays off
chicago colo slippage 1.8 ticks.
san diego was 2.4 ticks.
$180/month saves more in slippage.
4. realistic expectations prevent disappointment
expected modest.
got modest.
satisfied.
psychological edge.
tonight #
mid-june wrap.
first half: +$5,220 (1.24%).
78% win rate across 18 trades.
second half projection: +$4k to +$6k.
june total estimate: +$9k to +$11k (2.2% to 2.6%).
ytd +16.9%.
modest sustainable trading.
execute system.
accept variance.
11:47pm friday. mid-june wrap. first half +$5,220 (1.24%). 78% win rate, 18 trades. VIX 15-18 optimal. second half projection +$4k-6k, june total estimate +$9k-11k (2.2-2.6%). already exceeded may with half month left. ytd +16.9% in target range. modest sustainable pace maintained.
-AK