week 3 june done.
slight pullback.
normal variance after 2 strong weeks.
week 3 trades (june 17-21) #
monday 6/17: 2 trades, 1 win. +$260
tuesday 6/18: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$480
wednesday 6/19: 2 trades, 0 wins. -$920
thursday 6/20: 1 trade, 1 win. +$340
friday 6/21: 2 trades, 1 win. +$180
week total: 10 trades, 5 wins (50%). +$340
account status #
june 14: $428,080
june 21: $428,420
week 3: +$340 (+0.08%)
june MTD (3 weeks): +$5,560 (+1.32%)
ytd: +$62,220 (+17.0%)
basically flat week.
what changed #
VIX spike:
week 2: avg 15.8
week 3: avg 19.2
above optimal range.
correlation increase:
week 2: 0.48
week 3: 0.71
edge reduced.
regime stability:
week 2: 0.84
week 3: 0.62
less confident signals.
wednesday disaster #
lost -$920 in 2 trades.
what happened:
VIX spiked to 23.4 midday.
correlation jumped to 0.88.
both trades hit stops.
circuit breaker almost triggered.
threshold: 3 consecutive losses OR -$1,500 single day.
wednesday: 2 losses, -$920.
didn’t hit threshold.
but got close.
comparing three weeks #
week 1: +$2,040 (75% wr, VIX 16.8)
week 2: +$3,180 (80% wr, VIX 15.8)
week 3: +$340 (50% wr, VIX 19.2)
pattern clear:
VIX <17 = crushing it.
VIX >19 = struggling.
strategy is VIX-dependent.
slippage impact #
week 3: 2.3 ticks avg
week 2: 1.7 ticks
week 1: 1.9 ticks
higher vol = worse slippage.
exactly as expected.
risk management #
position size: $1,500 full size (maintained)
circuit breaker: not triggered (close call wednesday)
max losing streak: 2 (wednesday)
filters: 42% acceptance rate (reduced from 65%)
regime confidence: 0.62 avg (down from 0.84)
filters working - prevented more damage.
strategy performance #
regime-adaptive mean reversion:
low vol (2 trades): 2 wins, 0 losses (100% wr)
medium vol (5 trades): 3 wins, 2 losses (60% wr)
high vol (3 trades): 0 wins, 3 losses (0% wr)
high vol regime = brutal.
strategy correctly reduced trades.
only 3 attempts in high vol.
prevented larger disaster.
june projection update #
3 weeks complete: +$5,560
1 week remaining
revised estimate:
if VIX normalizes: week 4 +$1,500 to +$2,500
if VIX stays elevated: week 4 flat to +$500
june total estimate: +$7,000 to +$8,000 (+1.7% to +1.9%)
lower than mid-month projection but acceptable.
comparing to expectations #
mid-month projection: +$9,200 to +$11,200 for june
current pace: +$7,000 to +$8,000
difference: -$2,200 (week 3 pullback)
still positive month.
modest as expected.
ytd sustainability #
ytd: +17.0%
target: 15-18%
slightly above target.
if june ends +1.7% to +1.9%:
still within annual target range.
rest of year can have:
5 flat months.
1 losing month.
still finish 15-18%.
what’s working #
1. filters prevented disaster
42% acceptance in week 3.
stopped 58% of signals = capital preserved.
2. circuit breaker discipline
didn’t panic after wednesday.
followed rules.
3. regime adaptation
only 3 trades attempted in high vol.
strategy recognized poor conditions.
4. psychological stability
week 3 pullback didn’t trigger revenge trading.
calm execution maintained.
therapy session (6/17) #
dr. r: “week 3 rough. wednesday -$920.”
me: “yeah. VIX spiked. conditions shifted. strategy reduced trades. did its job.”
dr. r: “you’re not upset?”
me: “annoyed but not upset. can’t control VIX. can control response. followed system. week still positive.”
dr. r: “mature psychology. last year you would’ve revenge traded.”
me: “last year i lost $28k in one disaster. learned.”
exactly.
living with A. through variance #
week 3 trading stress higher.
A’s response:
tuesday night: “rough day?”
me: “VIX spiking. reduced trades.”
wednesday night: “worse?”
me: “yeah. lost $920.”
A.: “need space or want to talk?”
me: “space.”
gave me 2 hours alone at desk.
then came back, didn’t mention trading.
exactly what needed.
stable relationship = stable psychology.
week 4 expectations #
VIX forecast: 17-20 range
if forecast accurate:
medium vol regime.
expect 8-10 trades.
win rate 60-70%.
week 4 estimate: +$1,500 to +$2,500
acceptable.
lessons from week 3 #
1. variance is constant
2 strong weeks → 1 pullback.
normal pattern.
2. filters save capital
42% acceptance prevented disaster.
3. VIX >20 = struggle
strategy thrives VIX 14-19.
outside range = reduced edge.
4. circuit breaker clarity
knowing exact threshold prevents panic.
wednesday close call but followed rules.
5. relationship stability helps trading
A. giving space when needed = psychological edge.
tonight #
week 3 june.
+$340.
50% win rate.
slight pullback after 2 strong weeks.
VIX spike to 19.2 = struggle.
filters prevented larger disaster.
june MTD: +$5,560 (1.32%).
ytd: +17.0%.
1 week remaining.
2:44am monday. week 3 june complete. +$340 (0.08%). 50% win rate. VIX spike 15.8→19.2 above optimal range. wednesday -$920 near circuit breaker threshold. filters reduced acceptance 65%→42% prevented disaster. june MTD +$5,560 (1.32%). week 4 forecast +$1.5k-2.5k if VIX normalizes.
-AK