week 1 june done.
modest start.
exactly what expected after may flat.
week 1 trades (june 3-7) #
monday 6/3: no trades (memorial day)
tuesday 6/4: 3 trades, 2 wins. +$740
wednesday 6/5: 2 trades, 1 win. +$280
thursday 6/6: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$680
friday 6/7: 1 trade, 1 win. +$340
week total: 8 trades, 6 wins (75%). +$2,040
account status #
june 1: $422,860
june 7: $424,900
week 1: +$2,040 (+0.48%)
ytd: +$58,700 (+16.0%)
crossed 16% ytd.
market conditions #
VIX range: 16-18
avg VIX: 16.8
optimal range for my strategy.
correlation: 0.51 avg (moderate)
regime stability: 0.79 (stable)
conditions good but not significant.
comparing to may #
may week 1: +$80 (0.02%)
june week 1: +$2,040 (0.48%)
improvement but still modest.
both acceptable.
slippage tracking #
june week 1: 1.9 ticks avg
april avg: 1.7 ticks
may avg: 2.0 ticks
slight improvement from may.
conditions matter.
risk management #
position size: $1,500 (full size)
circuit breaker: not triggered
filters: 62% acceptance rate
regime confidence: 0.79 avg
max drawdown: -$420 (0.1%)
all systems normal.
strategy performance #
regime-adaptive mean reversion:
low vol (5 trades): 4 wins, 1 loss (80% wr)
medium vol (3 trades): 2 wins, 1 loss (67% wr)
strategy working as designed.
expectations vs reality #
expected: modest week (+$800 to +$1,600)
actual: +$2,040
slightly above expectation.
not impressive, not struggling.
normal variance.
ytd sustainability check #
ytd: +16.0% in 5 months
target: 15-18% annual
already exceeded low end.
rest of year pressure: zero.
june-december can be:
- 4-5 flat months
- 2-3 modest months
- 1-2 losing months
still finish 15-18%.
what’s working #
1. circuit breaker protocol
saved account in may week 3.
psychological safety net in place.
2. regime adaptation
strategy adjusts to VIX automatically.
no manual intervention needed.
3. realistic expectations
may flat after april strong = accepted.
june modest = also accepted.
4. stable personal life
living with A. 7 months.
routine locked.
therapy check-in (6/3) #
dr. r: “june starting. how do you feel about may flat?”
me: “fine. expected it.”
dr. r: “and june so far?”
me: “week 1 modest. +$2k. normal.”
dr. r: “you’re not chasing april strong.”
me: “can’t force wins. conditions dictate results. my job is execute system, accept outcomes.”
dr. r: “that’s mature psychology.”
exactly.
week 2 preview #
expectations:
similar to week 1.
modest gains or flat acceptable.
focus:
execute system.
follow filters.
preserve capital.
no pressure.
tonight #
week 1 june.
+$2,040.
75% win rate.
modest start = realistic trading.
ytd 16%.
execute system.
accept variance.
2:31am monday. week 1 june complete. +$2,040 (0.48%). 75% win rate across 8 trades. VIX 16-18 optimal range. ytd +16.0% exceeded annual target. june modest expectations maintained. week 2 begins tomorrow.
-AK