week 3 may done.
first losing week 2024.
discipline tested.
week 3 trades (may 13-17) #
monday 5/13: 2 trades, 0 wins. -$880
tuesday 5/14: 1 trade, 0 wins. -$540
wednesday 5/15: paused (circuit breaker triggered)
thursday 5/16: paused (circuit breaker active)
friday 5/17: 1 trade, 1 win. +$420
week total: 4 trades, 1 win (25%). -$1,000
account status #
may 10: $420,540
may 17: $419,540
week 3: -$1,000 (-0.24%)
may total (3 weeks): +$180 (+0.04%)
basically flat month.
first losing week since january #
last losing week: january 2024 (none - all positive)
before that: december 2023
5 months between losing weeks.
this was due.
what went wrong #
VIX environment:
spiked to 28.4 monday.
whipsawed 28 → 22 → 26 through tuesday.
my strategy needs stable regime.
got chaos.
correlation:
everything moved together (0.84).
no diversification.
all positions correlated.
when SPX dropped, everything dropped.
monday disaster (5/13) #
morning:
VIX opened 24.2, climbing.
2 setups passed aggressive filters.
entered both.
11am:
VIX spiked to 28.4.
regime completely shifted.
both positions stopped out.
-$880 day.
tuesday continuation (5/14) #
tried one more trade.
looked like reversal setup.
passed all filters.
failed.
another stop out.
-$540.
total monday-tuesday: -$1,420.
circuit breaker activation #
my rule:
3 consecutive losses = 1 week pause.
triggered tuesday.
paused wednesday-thursday.
no trading.
reviewed system.
analyzed what happened.
waited for conditions to improve.
the discipline test #
old me (sept 2023):
would’ve revenge traded wednesday.
doubled size to “make it back.”
blown up account worse.
current me:
followed circuit breaker rule.
paused 2 days.
analyzed calmly.
waited for better conditions.
growth.
friday return (5/17) #
VIX dropped to 19.2.
conditions improved.
took 1 trade.
won.
+$420.
small recovery but positive.
psychology of losing week #
monday night:
frustrated but not panicking.
tuesday night:
circuit breaker triggered, accepted.
wednesday-thursday:
used pause to review system, not beat myself up.
friday:
returned calmly, no revenge trading.
healthy response.
therapy tuesday (5/14) #
dr. r: “first losing week. how are you handling it?”
me: “okay. frustrated but not spiraling.”
dr. r: “what’s different from september?”
me: “september i abandoned system. now i’m following circuit breaker. pausing instead of revenge trading.”
dr. r: “you’re accepting reality instead of fighting it.”
me: “yeah. can’t control market. can control response.”
dr. r: “that’s mature trading psychology.”
exactly.
comparing to targets #
ytd: +$52,880 (+14.4%)
down from: +$53,240 last week
annual target: +15-18%
still on pace.
one losing week doesn’t change trajectory.
market conditions #
VIX week range: 22-28 (extreme)
correlation: 0.84 (very high)
regime stability: 0.42 (chaotic)
my strategy needs:
VIX: 14-19 (stable)
correlation: <0.6 (diversification)
regime stability: >0.75 (confidence)
conditions completely wrong.
what i did right #
1. followed circuit breaker
stopped trading after 3 losses.
prevented further damage.
2. reduced size
was already at $900 (reduced from $1,500).
limited loss size.
3. aggressive filtering
only took 4 trades all week.
avoided 8+ bad setups.
4. no revenge trading
stayed disciplined through pause.
5. calm return friday
didn’t overtrade on return.
1 trade, 1 win, done.
what i did wrong #
took trades monday-tuesday despite extreme VIX.
should’ve paused when VIX >25.
lesson learned.
adding filter for next time:
VIX >25 = automatic pause.
don’t wait for losses.
monthly projection update #
week 1: +$80
week 2: +$1,100
week 3: -$1,000
may total: +$180 (0.04%)
1 week remaining.
projection:
if VIX calms: +$500 to +$1,500
if VIX stays elevated: -$500 to +$500
may end: -$320 to +$1,680 (-0.08% to +0.4%)
flat to small losing month likely.
comparing to april #
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%), every week positive
may (so far): +$180 (+0.04%), 1 losing week
variance.
this is normal algo trading.
can’t expect april monthly.
living with A. - support through loss #
monday night:
came home quiet after -$880.
A.: “bad day?”
me: “yeah. lost $880.”
A.: “you okay?”
me: “yeah. just frustrated. market whipsawed.”
she didn’t try to fix it.
just sat with me.
that helped.
wednesday (pause day):
A.: “no trading today?”
me: “nope. circuit breaker triggered. pausing until friday.”
A.: “good. you’re following your rules.”
she gets it.
lessons from first losing week #
1. circuit breakers work
prevented spiral.
forced pause.
allowed calm analysis.
2. conditions matter
can’t force wins in wrong environment.
VIX >25 = pause next time.
3. psychology improved
lost $1,000, didn’t panic.
accepted variance.
returned calmly.
4. system valid
one losing week doesn’t invalidate strategy.
april proved it works.
may showing it adapts.
tonight #
week 3 may.
-$1,000.
first losing week 2024.
discipline tested.
circuit breaker followed.
no revenge trading.
calm return friday.
growth.
3:24am monday. week 3 may. -$1,000 (25% wr, 4 trades). first losing week 2024. VIX spiked to 28, chaos. circuit breaker triggered tuesday, paused wed-thu. calm return friday +$420. may total +$180 (0.04%). discipline maintained. no revenge trading. system followed.
-AK