perfect streak ended.
11 straight winners in august.
hit my first loser monday.
monday 8/14 trade #
SPX put spread
entry: sold $2.40 credit stop: -$3.60 (-150%) loss: -$360
vol detection gave green light. correlation check passed.
entered 10:30am.
position moved against me immediately.
hit stop at 11:15am.
why it lost #
my analysis:
market gapped up at open. i waited until 10:30am per time filter.
but: gap already established new range.
my entry was fighting the gap up momentum.
should’ve skipped. hindsight 20/20.
what i did right:
- followed stop loss (didn’t hope)
- kept size at 1.25% risk
- logged the trade for analysis
what i could improve:
- add gap detection to filters
- skip trades within 2 hours of significant gap (>1%)
mental game #
expectation: 80% win rate = 1 loser every 5 trades
reality: 11 winners then 1 loser
still above expectation. variance is normal.
emotional reaction: zero tilt. just data.
this is what risk management is for.
august updated #
goal: +$4,000 (beat in week 2)
current: +$3,510 (down from $3,870 after -$360 loss)
week 3 so far: -$360 (1 trade, 0 wins, 1 loss)
still way ahead for month.
account status #
start august: $351,145 current aug 14: $354,655 gain: +$3,510 (+1.00%)
11-trade win streak stats #
may-august win streaks:
- longest: 11 trades (just ended)
- average: 5.2 trades
- median: 4 trades
this streak was statistical outlier.
expected it to end. it did. moving on.
what’s next #
continuing same strategy.
adding gap detection filter.
expecting normal win rate (80%) rest of month.
comparison to learning period #
jan-mar 2023 (learning):
- losses tilted me
- revenge traded
- broke rules
- lost $180k total
now (august 2023):
- losses are data
- follow rules
- keep size consistent
- up $135k since april
difference: discipline.
momentum strategy update #
paper trading momentum for 2 weeks.
stats: 12 trades, 9 wins, 3 losses (75% win rate)
profit factor: 2.8
going live this week with 0.5% risk (half of mean reversion size).
3:20am tuesday. first august loser. 11-trade streak ended. -$360. discipline holding. still way ahead for month.
-AK