week 3 july done.
modest recovery from week 2 loss.
conditions stabilizing slightly.
week 3 trades (july 15-19) #
monday 7/15: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$780
tuesday 7/16: 2 trades, 1 win. +$340
wednesday 7/17: 1 trade, 1 win. +$460
thursday 7/18: 2 trades, 1 win. +$280
friday 7/19: 1 trade, 0 wins. -$380
week total: 8 trades, 5 wins (63%). +$1,480
account status #
july 12: $430,660
july 19: $432,140
week 3: +$1,480 (+0.34%)
july MTD (3 weeks): +$960 (+0.22%)
ytd: +$65,940 (+18.0%)
back to positive for month.
what improved #
VIX stability:
week 2: range 14-19 (whipsaw).
week 3: range 15-17 (stable).
less regime confusion.
volume:
still summer lows but consistent.
correlation:
week 2 ended: 0.82.
week 3 avg: 0.58.
edge returning.
comparing three weeks july #
week 1: +$1,220 (57% wr)
week 2: -$1,740 (25% wr)
week 3: +$1,480 (63% wr)
pattern: modest, loss, modest recovery.
total MTD: +$960.
slippage improvement #
week 3: 2.2 ticks avg
week 2: 2.8 ticks
week 1: 2.1 ticks
better fills as vol stabilized.
still worse than june (1.9 avg).
risk management #
position size: $1,500 maintained
circuit breaker: not triggered
filters: 54% acceptance (up from 38% week 2)
regime confidence: 0.71 (improved from 0.54)
cautious but improving.
strategy performance #
regime-adaptive mean reversion:
low vol (5 trades): 4 wins, 1 loss (80% wr)
medium vol (3 trades): 1 win, 2 losses (33% wr)
low vol working again.
medium vol still challenging.
july projection update #
3 weeks complete: +$960
1 week remaining
revised estimate:
week 4: +$800 to +$1,500 likely.
july total estimate: +$1,800 to +$2,500 (+0.42% to +0.58%)
modest month confirmed.
ytd analysis #
ytd: +18.0%
target: 15-18%
above target by 0.2%.
july modest performance bringing back toward target.
exactly what needed.
therapy session (7/16) #
dr. r: “recovery week after losing week. how do you feel?”
me: “good. followed system. didn’t panic. week 2 loss was variance. week 3 shows strategy still works.”
dr. r: “and the marriage thoughts from birthday?”
me: “still thinking about it. not ready to do anything yet but the thought is there.”
dr. r: “have you told A.?”
me: “no. too soon. only 8 months.”
dr. r: “when would it not be too soon?”
me: “…don’t know. year? two years?”
dr. r: “there’s no right timeline. but awareness is good.”
fair point.
living with A. - 8.5 months #
small moment thursday night:
trading done for day.
sitting on couch.
A. coding on laptop.
me reading.
her foot touching my leg.
no talking.
just comfortable silence.
thought:
“this is what i want forever.”
didn’t say it.
but felt it.
week 4 expectations #
summer continues.
VIX forecast: 15-18 range.
if holds:
week 4 modest +$800 to +$1,500.
july ends modestly.
acceptable outcome.
lessons from week 3 #
1. recovery after loss
didn’t panic week 2 → calm execution week 3 → recovery.
2. patience pays
waited for conditions to improve.
didn’t force trades.
3. filters adapt well
38% → 54% acceptance as conditions improved.
4. small moments matter
comfortable silence with A. = relationship working.
tonight #
week 3 july.
+$1,480.
63% win rate.
recovery from week 2 loss.
july back to positive (+$960).
ytd +18.0%.
1 week remaining.
3:32am monday. week 3 july complete. +$1,480 (0.34%). 63% win rate. recovery from week 2 -$1,740 loss. VIX stabilized, slippage improved 2.8→2.2 ticks. july MTD +$960 (0.22%). ytd +18.0% slightly above target. 1 week remaining.
-AK