week 4 july done.
finishing modest summer month.
consistency maintained despite conditions.
week 4 trades (july 22-26) #
monday 7/22: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$680
tuesday 7/23: 1 trade, 0 wins. -$420
wednesday 7/24: 2 trades, 1 win. +$340
thursday 7/25: 2 trades, 2 wins. +$780
friday 7/26: 1 trade, 1 win. +$380
week total: 8 trades, 6 wins (75%). +$1,760
account status #
july 19: $432,140
july 26: $433,900
week 4: +$1,760 (+0.41%)
july total (4 weeks): +$2,720 (+0.63%)
ytd: +$67,700 (+18.5%)
modest month complete.
comparing four weeks july #
week 1: +$1,220 (57% wr)
week 2: -$1,740 (25% wr)
week 3: +$1,480 (63% wr)
week 4: +$1,760 (75% wr)
total: +$2,720 (+0.63%)
1 losing week, 3 modest weeks.
normal summer pattern.
slippage tracking #
week 4: 2.0 ticks avg
july avg: 2.3 ticks
june avg: 1.9 ticks
summer slippage worse but week 4 improving.
risk management #
position size: $1,500 all trades
circuit breaker: not triggered (week 2 close call)
filters: 61% acceptance (best since week 1)
regime confidence: 0.78 (strong)
conditions improving end of month.
strategy performance #
regime-adaptive mean reversion:
low vol (5 trades): 5 wins, 0 losses (100% wr)
medium vol (3 trades): 1 win, 1 loss (33% wr)
low vol regime = money.
medium vol = still challenging.
july final vs expectations #
early july estimate: +$2k to +$4k
actual: +$2,720
within range.
modest summer month achieved.
comparing to previous months 2024 #
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - standout
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%) - significant
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%) - normal
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%) - modest
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%) - modest
pattern holding: 2 notable, 5 modest/flat.
ytd sustainability check #
ytd: +18.5%
target: 15-18%
above target by 0.5%.
need correction H2.
august-december:
should target: +0% to +3% total (5 months).
achievable with:
- 3-4 flat months
- 1-2 losing months
still finish 15-18% annual.
therapy reflection (7/23) #
dr. r: “july wrapping up. modest month.”
me: “yeah. +$2.7k. 1 losing week, 3 modest. summer trading.”
dr. r: “and relationship?”
me: “good. 8.5 months living together. still thinking about marriage.”
dr. r: “have you talked to A. about future?”
me: “not explicitly. but we talk like it’s assumed. ‘when we get a house’ not ‘if’. stuff like that.”
dr. r: “implied commitment.”
me: “yeah. neither of us planning to leave.”
exactly.
living with A. - small changes #
new routine started this month:
sunday mornings: breakfast in bed (she cooks, we eat on balcony).
her idea.
me: “why sunday mornings?”
A.: “because we can. because it’s nice. because i want to.”
simple.
been doing it 3 sundays now.
works.
august preview #
expectations:
summer continues.
august typically slow.
realistic outcomes:
flat month (+0% to +0.5%).
small gain (+0.5% to +1%).
small loss (-0.5% to -1%).
all acceptable.
ytd already above target.
what worked in july #
1. accepting summer reality
lower volume = different conditions.
adapted strategy as a result.
2. circuit breaker discipline
week 2 close call but followed rules.
3. filter adaptation
38% → 61% acceptance as conditions improved.
4. psychological stability
relationship solid = trading psychology solid.
tonight #
week 4 july.
+$1,760.
75% win rate.
july total: +$2,720 (+0.63%).
ytd: +$67,700 (+18.5%).
modest summer month complete.
august begins tomorrow.
3:08am monday. week 4 july complete. +$1,760 (0.41%). 75% win rate. july total +$2,720 (0.63%). 1 losing week, 3 modest weeks = summer pattern. slippage improved week 4 to 2.0 ticks. ytd +18.5% above target - need flat H2 to finish 15-18% range. august begins with realistic expectations.
-AK