week 4 october done.
modest finish ahead of election week.
week 4 numbers #
starting (oct 21): $443,820
ending (oct 24): $444,780
week 4 gain: +$960 (+0.22%)
trades: 6
wins: 5
losses: 1
win rate: 83%
conservative positioning.
election volatility coming.
market conditions week 4 #
avg VIX: 17.4 (slightly elevated)
correlation: 0.62 (moderate)
volume: 3.3M (down 6% vs week 3)
regime stability: 0.68 (acceptable but cautious)
pre-election uncertainty building.
positioning for november #
reduced trade size wednesday-thursday:
normal: $1,500
wednesday-thursday: $1,200
reason: election nov 5
VIX likely 18-22 range next week.
conservative approach validated.
small gains better than forcing into volatility.
filter performance #
acceptance rate: 52% (vs week 3 61%)
correctly tightened pre-event.
48% rejection = capital preservation ahead of uncertainty.
regime confidence: 0.68
system detecting building uncertainty.
slippage tracking #
week 4 avg: 2.2 ticks
slightly worse than week 3 (2.0).
pre-event vol expanding spreads.
comparing month weeks #
week 1: +$1,920 (86% wr) - strong start
week 2: -$2,220 (33% wr) - VIX spike pullback
week 3: +$2,460 (75% wr) - recovery
week 4: +$960 (83% wr) - modest finish
month total: +$3,120 (+0.71%)
exactly what targeted.
ytd check #
ytd (through oct 24): +$78,780 (+21.5%)
annual target: +15-18%
3.5% above target.
november-december need:
-
1 flat month (+0% to +0.5%)
-
1 small losing month (-1% to -2%)
finish 19-20% annual = perfect.
election week plan #
nov 4 (monday before): pause trading
nov 5 (election day): no trades
nov 6-7: assess conditions, resume if stable
conservative approach:
protect october gains.
wait for post-election clarity.
tonight (oct 24, 11:51pm) #
week 4 done.
+$960 (+0.22%).
83% win rate modest.
october wrapping +$3,120.
conservative pre-election positioning.
ytd +21.5%.
election week pause planned.
11:51pm thursday. week 4 october complete. +$960 (0.22%). 5 wins, 1 loss. reduced position sizing wed-thu ($1,200 vs $1,500) ahead of election. filters 52% acceptance. month ends +$3,120 (0.71%). ytd +$78,780 (21.5%). election week pause nov 4-5 planned. modest conservative finish.
-AK