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week 3 october - recovery from week 2 pullback

week 3 october done.

recovery from week 2 losses.

week 3 numbers
#

starting (oct 14): $441,360

ending (oct 17): $443,820

week 3 gain: +$2,460 (+0.56%)

trades: 8

wins: 6

losses: 2

win rate: 75%

solid recovery.

conditions normalized.

market conditions week 3
#

avg VIX: 16.8 (back to optimal from 18.9)

correlation: 0.58 (down from 0.68)

volume: 3.5M (stable)

regime stability: 0.73 (recovered from 0.61)

conditions returned to normal range.

regime shift reversed.

what worked
#

monday-wednesday: +$1,680 (4 wins, 0 losses)

VIX normalized quickly.

filters opened back to 61% acceptance.

thursday-friday: +$780 (2 wins, 2 losses)

modest finish but positive.

filter performance
#

acceptance rate: 61% (vs week 2 47%)

correctly reopened after regime stabilized.

regime confidence: 0.73

back to confident range.

system detecting improvement.

slippage tracking
#

week 3 avg: 2.0 ticks

back to september levels.

lower vol = tighter spreads.

comparing week patterns
#

week 1: +$1,920 (86% wr)

week 2: -$2,220 (33% wr)

week 3: +$2,460 (75% wr)

classic 2 positive, 1 negative pattern.

exactly what sustainable trading looks like.

month progress check
#

week 1: +$1,920

week 2: -$2,220

week 3: +$2,460

month through 3 weeks: +$2,160 (+0.49%)

tracking toward flat to small positive month.

perfect for ytd management.

ytd update
#

ytd (through oct 17): +$77,820 (+21.3%)

still above target.

october small gain acceptable.

need november-december flat or negative.

strategy note
#

circuit breaker not needed week 3.

max loss thursday: -$380.

well below -$1,500 threshold.

filters preventing bad setups.

tonight (oct 17, 2:27am)
#

week 3 solid.

+$2,460 (+0.56%).

75% win rate.

conditions normalized.

filters adapted correctly.

month positive through 3 weeks.

ytd on track.


2:27am thursday. week 3 october complete. +$2,460 (0.56%). 6 wins, 2 losses. VIX recovered to 16.8 from week 2 spike. filters reopened to 61% acceptance. slippage back to 2.0 ticks. month +$2,160 through 3 weeks. ytd +$77,820 (21.3%). recovery demonstrated.

-AK

Related

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