mid-october.
time for ytd reality check.
current status (oct 15) #
ytd: +$77,580 (+21.2%)
annual target: +15-18%
exceeded by 3.2%.
months remaining: 2.5
decision point: how to finish year.
scenarios for remaining 2.5 months #
scenario 1: continue current pace
oct-dec each +0.5% avg
result: finish +23.5% annual
problem: unrealistic, unsustainable
scenario 2: flat remainder
oct-dec each +0% to +0.5%
result: finish +21-22% annual
acceptable: slightly above target but reasonable
scenario 3: mixed (preferred)
oct: +0.5% to +1%
nov: flat (+0% to +0.5%)
dec: small loss (-1% to -2%)
result: finish +19-20% annual
ideal: demonstrates realistic variance
why scenario 3 preferred #
1. demonstrates sustainability
shows 2024 wasn’t luck.
realistic algo trading includes losses.
2. manages expectations
can’t sustain 21%+ annually.
3. positions for 2025
ending 2024 at +19% sets realistic baseline.
4. shows discipline
choosing conservative over aggressive.
october target refined #
current (oct 15): +$77,580
october target end: +$78,000 to +$79,500
requires: +$420 to +$1,920 remaining 2 weeks
achievable: week 3 already +$2,460
plan:
week 3 done: +$2,460
week 4 target: flat to small gain
month ends +0.5% to +1%.
november-december plan #
november:
election volatility nov 5.
conservative positioning.
target: +$0 to +$1,500 (+0% to +0.3%)
december:
holiday liquidity decline.
accept small loss.
target: -$2,000 to -$4,000 (-0.4% to -0.9%)
combined result #
oct: +$3,000 (+0.7%)
nov: +$500 (+0.1%)
dec: -$3,000 (-0.7%)
year-end: +$79,000 (+19.3%)
perfect finish.
comparing to 2023 #
2023 year-end: -$34,000 (-8.5%)
lost money learning.
2024 projected: +$79,000 (+19.3%)
validated strategies.
$113k swing year-over-year.
what this means for 2025 #
starting 2025: ~$445,000
vs 2024 start: $366,200
+21.5% larger account.
realistic 2025 target: +12-15%
(harder to maintain % as account grows)
projected 2025 end: $498k to $511k
first year potentially crossing $500k.
tonight (oct 15, 2:43am) #
mid-october check complete.
ytd +21.2%.
october target: +0.5% to +1%
november target: flat
december target: small loss
year-end projection: +19-20%
realistic, sustainable, disciplined.
2:43am tuesday. mid-october analysis complete. ytd +$77,580 (21.2%). october tracking +0.7% target. nov-dec plan: flat + small loss = finish 19-20% annual. demonstrates realistic algo trading variance. 2024 → 2025 account growth $366k → $445k (+21.5%). first year potentially crossing $500k in 2025.
-AK