march halfway done.
losing month confirmed.
protecting capital priority.
mid-march numbers #
starting (mar 1): $456,270
current (mar 16): $449,580
march loss: -$6,690 (-1.47%)
trades: 15
wins: 5
losses: 10
win rate: 33%
worst month since december 2024.
weekly breakdown #
week 1 (mar 2-8): -$1,090 (-0.24%)
week 2 (mar 9-15): -$2,720 (-0.60%)
week 3 (mar 16): -$2,880 (-0.63%, partial week)
pattern clear:
consecutive losing weeks.
conditions not improving.
strategies failing in current regime.
what’s wrong #
market regime:
VIX averaged 20.8 march (vs feb 16.5).
correlation averaged 0.76 march (vs feb 0.59).
volume down 22% march (vs feb baseline).
my strategies optimized for:
VIX 13-18 range.
correlation <0.65.
normal volume.
this is textbook regime mismatch.
strategies aren’t broken.
market changed.
comparing to target ranges #
march realistic outcomes (from feb 28 post):
modest month: +1.5% to +2.5%.
flat month: +0.5% to +1.2%.
march actual: -1.47% (halfway through)
projected month-end: -2% to -3%
this is outside my expected range but acceptable variance.
can’t win every month.
circuit breaker performance #
triggered: 2 times this month
march 6: 3 consecutive losses (paused 1 day).
march 13: -$1,500 single day loss on ES futures whipsaw.
preventive measures working:
without circuit breaker: march would be -5%+ easily.
capital preservation > forcing trades.
ytd performance check #
jan 1: $437,800
mar 16: $449,580
ytd gain: +$11,780 (+2.69%)
ytd months:
jan: +2.18%
feb: +1.99%
mar (projected): -2.1%
annual pace: +10.8%
vs target: 15-18%
below target but still positive ytd.
3 months isn’t enough data.
need full year perspective.
lessons from march (so far) #
1. regime detection needs improvement
saw warning signs week 1 (VIX 19.8).
should’ve paused entire month.
instead: paid $6,690 tuition.
2. VIX >20 = full stop
new rule implemented march 10.
if VIX >20 for 2 consecutive days: pause all trading until <18 for 3 days.
cost: $4,200 this month before rule implemented.
3. losing months = reality
2024: 1 losing month (december -1.86%).
2025: march will be second losing month in 15 months.
this is normal variance.
can’t expect 90%+ winning months.
4. wedding planning + losing month = stress
bachelor party next weekend.
wedding 7 weeks out.
losing $6,690 while planning $19k wedding.
A. been supportive but i can tell she’s stressed about money.
adjusting march expectations #
realistic march outcomes:
best case: -1.8% to -2.2% (-$8,200 to -$10,000)
worst case: -2.5% to -3.2% (-$11,400 to -$14,600)
most likely: -2.1% (-$9,580)
remaining 2 weeks:
if conditions improve: might reduce loss to -1.8%.
if conditions stay elevated: might hit -2.5%.
either way: losing month confirmed.
comparing to 2024 march #
march 2024:
modest winning month.
+$8,400 (+2.1%).
favorable conditions entire month.
march 2025:
losing month.
-$6,690 (-1.47% halfway).
elevated VIX entire month.
different market = different outcome.
not repeating 2024 pattern.
variance expected.
week 3-4 plan #
trading:
pause unless VIX drops <18 for 3 consecutive days.
protect capital > forcing trades.
personal:
bachelor party april 18-19 (5 weeks).
wedding may 10 (7 weeks).
rehearsal dinner planning this week.
priorities:
- protect capital (pause trading).
- wedding planning (relationship priority).
- resume trading when conditions improve (probably april).
tonight (march 16, 10:41pm) #
mid-march reality check.
-$6,690 (-1.47%) halfway through month.
33% win rate (5 wins, 10 losses).
VIX 20.8 avg, correlation 0.76, volume -22%.
circuit breaker triggered 2x (prevented -5%+ month).
projected month-end: -2.1% (-$9,580).
ytd +2.69% (below 15-18% target pace).
wedding 7 weeks out, bachelor party 5 weeks.
pausing trading rest of march unless conditions improve.
10:41pm sunday. mid-march complete. -$6,690 (-1.47%) across 15 trades. 33% win rate. VIX 20.8 avg march (vs 16.5 feb), correlation 0.76 (vs 0.59 feb), volume -22%. circuit breaker triggered 2x (mar 6 three consecutive losses, mar 13 -$1,500 single day ES whipsaw). regime mismatch: strategies optimized VIX 13-18 failing in elevated volatility. projected month-end -2.1% (-$9,580). ytd +2.69% (jan +2.18%, feb +1.99%, mar -2.1%). pausing rest of march unless VIX <18 three days. wedding 7 weeks, bachelor party 5 weeks.
-AK