january done.
2025 started.
target hit.
sustainable approach validated.
january final numbers #
starting (jan 1): $437,800
ending (jan 31): $447,350
january gain: +$9,550 (+2.18%)
trades: 29
wins: 21
losses: 8
win rate: 72%
Figure 1: January weekly performance showing consistent execution. Week 1 +$1,840 (71% wr, 7 trades), Week 2 +$2,280 (75% wr, 8 trades), Week 3 +$2,120 (67% wr, 6 trades), Week 4 +$2,840 (71% wr, 7 trades), Week 5 partial +$470 (67% wr, 3 trades mon-wed, paused thu-fri major earnings). Month ended +$9,550 (+2.18%). Consistent $2k+ weekly avg. Win rate variance 67-75% around 72% monthly avg = sustainable.
weekly breakdown #
Figure 2: Earnings season impact on January trading activity. Normal conditions weeks 1-2 (VIX 15.9-16.8, volume 3.6-3.8M). Earnings volatility week 3-4 (VIX peaked 20.1 jan 23, volume compressed 3.4M). Paused 3 days total: jan 22-23 (NFLX/TSLA), jan 29-30 (MSFT/AAPL/AMZN/META). Red zones = earnings pauses. Normal trading 26 days, paused 5 days. Pause decisions saved estimated -$3,200 potential losses during VIX spikes.
week 1 (jan 2-5): +$1,840, 71% wr, 7 trades
week 2 (jan 9-12): +$2,280, 75% wr, 8 trades
week 3 (jan 16-19): +$2,120, 67% wr, 6 trades
week 4 (jan 23-26): +$2,840, 71% wr, 7 trades
week 5 (jan 30-31): +$470, 67% wr, 3 trades (partial week, paused thu-fri earnings)
consistent weekly gains.
no single strong week needed.
this is sustainable trading.
comparing to target #
january target: +1.8% to +2.4%
january actual: +2.18%
result: mid-range hit
annual pace: +2.18% × 12 = +26.2%
vs annual target: 15-18%
ahead of pace (expected - some months will be flat/losing).
comparing to 2024 january #
2024 january:
strong month.
+$27,200 (+7.4%).
2 explosive weeks carried month.
set unrealistic pace.
2025 january:
modest month.
+$9,550 (+2.18%).
4 consistent weeks, no explosions.
sustainable pace.
different trajectory = expected.
not repeating 2024 strong january.
realistic variance.
market conditions january #
Figure 3: January market conditions summary. Average volume 3.6M contracts (stable post-holiday). VIX averaged 17.1 (optimal range 13-22, peak 20.1 jan 23 earnings). Correlation 0.60 (acceptable diversification). Regime stability 0.71 (stable). Slippage 2.1 ticks average (best 1.9 week 2, worst 2.3 week 4 earnings). Chicago colo preventing 3.5+ tick disaster. Conditions: favorable 80% of month, degraded 20% during earnings (paused correctly).
avg volume: 3.6M contracts
post-holiday recovery stable.
avg VIX: 17.1
peaked 20.1 during earnings (paused correctly).
avg correlation: 0.60
acceptable diversification maintained.
avg regime stability: 0.71
stable conditions most of month.
earnings volatility:
paused 3 days (jan 22-23, jan 29-30).
VIX >19 both periods.
pause decisions validated.
slippage tracking january #
january avg: 2.1 ticks
best week: 1.9 ticks (week 2)
worst week: 2.3 ticks (week 4 earnings)
vs december avg: 2.5 ticks
improvement: -0.4 ticks (-16%)
post-holiday liquidity returned.
chicago colo + volume = clean fills.
execution quality excellent.
circuit breaker 2025 performance #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 0 times
largest loss: -$340 (jan 19 ETH)
preventive measures:
paused 3 days earnings volatility.
filtered out 18 marginal setups.
capital preserved.
circuit breaker never needed.
philosophy validated.
risk management stats #
position sizing: $1,500 all trades (consistent)
max drawdown: -$340 (0.08%)
trades executed: 29
trades paused: 5 days (earnings)
filters avg: 68% acceptance
regime confidence avg: 0.71
selective execution = sustainable.
lessons from january #
1. consistency > impressive
4 weeks: $1,840, $2,280, $2,120, $2,840.
stable $2k+ avg, no home runs needed.
sustainable approach works.
2. earnings pause = capital preservation
paused 3 days VIX >19.
cost ~$1,200 opportunity.
saved -$3,200+ potential losses.
net benefit +$2,000.
3. 72% win rate sustainable
weekly variance: 67% to 75% around 72% avg.
regression to mean demonstrated.
long-term average validated.
4. wedding planning = ongoing time sink
paused 1 afternoon (invitations).
rehearsal dinner planning upcoming.
family > forced trades.
5. post-holiday normalization
december -1.86% losing month.
january +2.18% modest recovery.
variance cycle normal.
life update - wedding 3.5 months out #
planning progress:
invitations mailed jan 20 (45 guests).
venue confirmed (beach, may 2025).
photographer booked.
caterer locked (buffet tacos).
upcoming:
rehearsal dinner planning february.
honeymoon booking (hawaii).
A’s mom compromised on most decisions.
relationship:
living together 15 months.
engaged 3 months.
places list: 34 (added home gym friday, risky during workout).
sex life:
still incredible.
wedding planning stress → more frequent.
she loves control when life chaotic.
both dealing with stress well.
comparing january 2023 vs 2024 vs 2025 #
january 2023:
learning year.
lost money.
no confidence.
emotional trading.
january 2024:
notable month.
+$27,200 (+7.4%).
2 explosive weeks.
set unrealistic pace.
january 2025:
sustainable month.
+$9,550 (+2.18%).
4 consistent weeks.
realistic pace.
transformation complete:
2023: learning and losing.
2024: standout but unsustainable.
2025: modest and sustainable.
this is long-term algo trading.
february preview #
expectations:
normal trading month (no major holidays).
earnings season winding down.
realistic outcomes:
modest month: +1.5% to +2.5% ($6,700 to $11,200)
flat month: -0.5% to +1.0% (-$2,200 to +$4,500)
target: +1.8% to +2.2%
sustainable pace.
upcoming:
rehearsal dinner planning.
honeymoon booking.
normal market conditions expected.
tonight (january 31, 23:56pm) #
january done.
+$9,550 (+2.18%).
72% win rate across 29 trades.
target +1.8% to +2.4% hit mid-range.
4 consistent weeks, no home runs needed.
paused 3 days earnings (saved -$3.2k+ potential losses).
circuit breaker zero triggers.
wedding 3.5 months out.
2025 sustainable start.
execute system.
accept variance.
family > forced trades.
11:56pm friday. january wrap. +$9,550 (2.18%) across 29 trades. 72% win rate. target +1.8% to +2.4% hit mid-range. 4 consistent weeks ($1,840, $2,280, $2,120, $2,840) + partial week 5 (+$470). paused 3 days earnings volatility (jan 22-23, 29-30) saved -$3,200 losses. slippage 2.1 ticks avg (improved from dec 2.5). comparing: jan 2024 notable +7.4% vs jan 2025 sustainable +2.18%. circuit breaker zero triggers. wedding may 2025 (3.5 months), invitations mailed, rehearsal dinner planning next. relationship stable, places list 34. sustainable start to 2025.
-AK