week 4 january.
final push toward month-end.
earnings pause executed wednesday-thursday.
week 4 performance #
trades: 7
wins: 5
losses: 2
win rate: 71%
week gain: +$2,840 (+0.64%)
account: $446,880
ytd: +2.07%
trade breakdown #
monday (jan 20): +$740 (ES momentum post-holiday)
tuesday (jan 21): +$520 (SPX put spread)
wednesday (jan 22): paused (earnings: NFLX, TSLA reports - VIX spiked 18.2)
thursday (jan 23): paused (earnings volatility continuing)
friday (jan 24): +$860 (BTC recovery after earnings selloff)
saturday (jan 25): -$180 (stopped out ETH), +$620 (QQQ call spread)
sunday (jan 26): +$280 (small ES momentum), -$140 (crypto alt reversal)
71% win rate = back to average.
earnings pause prevented potential disaster.
earnings week volatility #
major earnings this week:
NFLX tuesday PM: missed, stock -12%.
TSLA wednesday PM: beat, stock +8% (then reversed -5% thursday).
VIX reaction:
tuesday close: 16.8
wednesday spike: 19.4 (+2.6 points)
thursday peak: 20.1 (+3.3 from tuesday)
my action:
paused wednesday-thursday (VIX >19).
waited for normalization.
resumed friday (VIX back to 17.2).
cost of pause: ~$800 opportunity (2-3 missed setups)
value of pause: prevented potential -$2,000+ loss during volatility spike
net benefit: +$1,200
comparing weeks 1-2-3-4 #
week 1: +$1,840, 71% wr, 7 trades
week 2: +$2,280, 75% wr, 8 trades
week 3: +$2,120, 67% wr, 6 trades
week 4: +$2,840, 71% wr, 7 trades
pattern:
win rates: 71% → 75% → 67% → 71% (variance around 71% avg).
weekly gains: $1,840 → $2,280 → $2,120 → $2,840 (consistent $2k+ avg).
sustainable monthly performance.
market conditions week 4 #
avg volume: 3.4M contracts (earnings week typical)
avg VIX: 18.3 (elevated from 17.4 week 3)
avg correlation: 0.64 (higher during earnings)
avg regime stability: 0.66 (lowest of month)
conditions: degraded during earnings
wednesday-thursday volatility spike.
normalized friday-sunday.
pause decision validated.
slippage tracking week 4 #
week 4 avg: 2.3 ticks
ytd avg: 2.1 ticks
degradation during earnings expected.
friday-sunday: 1.9 ticks (back to normal).
wednesday-thursday paused: avoided 3.5+ tick disaster.
chicago colo value proven again.
ytd progress final week #
account jan 1: $437,800
account jan 26: $446,880
ytd gain: +$9,080 (+2.07%)
4 weeks complete.
target range: +1.8% to +2.4%
hit target mid-range.
circuit breaker status #
week 4: no triggers
ytd: 0 triggers
close calls: 0
largest loss: -$340 (jan 19 ETH)
preventive philosophy:
paused wednesday-thursday earnings.
prevented circuit breaker activation.
zero emergency brakes needed.
upcoming month-end #
remaining days: mon jan 27 - fri jan 31
realistic outcomes:
conservative: +0 to +0.3% ($0 to $1,300) = finish +2.1% to +2.4%
normal: +0.3% to +0.5% ($1,300 to $2,200) = finish +2.4% to +2.6%
most likely: finish +2.2% to +2.4% month
final account forecast: $447,400 to $448,300
target achieved.
lessons week 4 #
1. earnings pause = capital preservation
VIX spiked 19.4 → 20.1 wednesday-thursday.
paused both days.
missed ~$800 opportunity but avoided -$2k+ potential loss.
net benefit +$1,200.
2. patience during volatility
didn’t force trades thursday when VIX elevated.
waited for friday normalization.
discipline > FOMO.
3. 71% win rate sustainable
4-week variance: 71% → 75% → 67% → 71%.
regression to mean demonstrated.
long-term average holds.
4. consistent weekly gains
$1,840 → $2,280 → $2,120 → $2,840 = $9,080 total.
no single impressive week needed.
grind approach works.
5. upcoming major earnings
MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META all report jan 29-30.
plan: pause if VIX >20.
capital preservation priority.
tonight (january 26, 4:19am) #
week 4 january done.
+$2,840 (+0.64%).
71% win rate across 7 trades.
ytd: +2.07%.
earnings pause wed-thu saved -$2k+ potential loss.
5 days remaining january.
target +2.2% to +2.4% achievable.
circuit breaker zero triggers.
sustainable trading demonstrated.
4:19am sunday. week 4 january complete. +$2,840 (0.64%) across 7 trades. 71% win rate back to avg. ytd +2.07% ($9,080 gain). paused wed-thu earnings volatility (NFLX, TSLA) - VIX spiked 19.4 → 20.1. pause cost ~$800 opportunity, saved -$2k+ potential loss, net +$1,200 benefit. slippage 2.3 ticks week (earnings), normalized 1.9 ticks fri-sun. 5 days remaining january, forecast finish +2.2% to +2.4%. major earnings jan 29-30 (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META). circuit breaker zero triggers.
-AK