week 2 january done.
consistency building.
no home runs, just base hits.
week 2 performance #
trades: 8
wins: 6
losses: 2
win rate: 75%
week gain: +$2,280 (+0.52%)
account: $441,920
ytd: +0.94%
trade breakdown #
monday (jan 6): +$340 (SPX put credit spread)
tuesday: +$520 (ES momentum continuation)
wednesday: -$240 (BTC reversal caught me), +$380 (recovered ETH long)
thursday: +$460 (QQQ call spread)
friday: -$180 (stopped out ES), +$620 (crypto alt momentum), +$380 (end-of-week SPX)
75% win rate = above long-term avg.
sustainable pace.
comparing week 1 vs week 2 #
week 1: +$1,840 (71% wr, 7 trades)
week 2: +$2,280 (75% wr, 8 trades)
improvement:
+$440 more (+24%).
win rate +4%.
trades +1.
building consistency.
market conditions week 2 #
avg volume: 3.8M contracts
avg VIX: 15.9 (-0.9 from week 1)
avg correlation: 0.56
avg regime stability: 0.76
conditions: improving
liquidity strong.
volatility normalizing.
diversification good.
edge present.
slippage tracking #
week 2 avg: 1.9 ticks
week 1 avg: 2.1 ticks
improvement: -0.2 ticks
volume increasing = tighter spreads.
chicago colo advantage clear.
execution quality excellent.
ytd progress #
account jan 1: $437,800
account jan 12: $441,920
ytd gain: +$4,120 (+0.94%)
2 weeks complete.
on pace for +2.0% to +2.3% month.
exactly target range.
circuit breaker status #
week 2: no triggers
close calls: 0
largest loss: -$240 wednesday
well below -$1,500 threshold.
recovered same day.
philosophy working.
what’s working #
1. selective execution
15 total trades 2 weeks.
filtered out 12 marginal setups.
quality > quantity.
2. quick recovery
wednesday -$240 BTC loss.
recovered +$380 ETH same day.
moved on immediately.
3. consistent position sizing
$1,500 all trades.
no variance in risk.
discipline maintained.
4. regime awareness
VIX 13-19 range = optimal.
correlation <0.60 = diversified.
only trading when edge clear.
what i’m watching #
earnings season starting:
volatility could spike mid-month.
planning to pause if VIX >22.
crypto correlation increasing:
BTC/ETH moving together more.
diversification benefit reducing.
may reduce crypto allocation.
wedding planning stress:
invitations ordered friday.
A’s mom won half the arguments.
time sink increasing.
may pause days as needed.
realistic january forecast update #
current pace: +$4,120 in 2 weeks
if sustained: +$8,240 full month (+1.88%)
realistic range: +1.8% to +2.4%
mid-point: +2.1% = +$9,200
target maintained.
lessons week 2 #
1. consistency > home runs
8 trades, 6 wins, modest gains.
no standout days needed.
sustainable approach.
2. 75% win rate above avg
long-term target: 65-72%.
75% = positive variance.
expect regression.
3. recovery matters
-$240 loss wednesday.
+$380 recovery same day.
net positive.
4. conditions improving
volume up, VIX down, correlation good.
january shaping up well.
5. wedding planning = grind
friday afternoon: 3 hours invitations.
A. stressed, i helped.
priorities.
tonight (january 12, 3:55am) #
week 2 january done.
+$2,280 (+0.52%).
75% win rate across 8 trades.
ytd: +0.94%.
on pace for +2.1% month.
consistency building.
no home runs needed.
execute system.
3:55am sunday. week 2 january complete. +$2,280 (0.52%) across 8 trades. 75% win rate above long-term avg. ytd +0.94% on pace for +2.1% month. slippage improved 2.1 → 1.9 ticks as volume increased. conditions improving: VIX normalizing, correlation good. wedding invitations ordered friday (A’s mom won half arguments). consistency over home runs. sustainable pace.
-AK