week 1 january done.
modest start.
conditions normalizing post-holidays.
week 1 performance #
trades: 7
wins: 5
losses: 2
win rate: 71%
week gain: +$1,840 (+0.42%)
account: $439,640
ytd: +0.42%
trade breakdown #
monday (jan 2): +$620 (ES momentum)
tuesday: +$240 (SPX put spread)
wednesday: -$180 (stopped out QQQ call)
thursday: +$480 (crypto alt momentum)
friday: -$340 (ES reversal caught me), +$720 (recovered BTC long), +$300 (end-of-week SPX)
exactly 71% win rate = textbook.
market conditions week 1 #
avg volume: 3.4M contracts
post-holiday recovery.
avg VIX: 16.8
elevated from december 15.1.
avg correlation: 0.59
acceptable diversification.
avg regime stability: 0.71
stable post-election continuing.
conditions: normal.
liquidity returned.
spreads tightened.
execution quality good.
comparing to 2024 january week 1 #
2024 jan week 1:
notable start.
+$6,400 first week.
set tone for +7.4% month.
2025 jan week 1:
modest start.
+$1,840 first week.
realistic pace.
not repeating 2024 standout january.
sustainable variance.
slippage tracking #
week 1 avg: 2.1 ticks
vs dec avg: 2.5 ticks
improvement: -0.4 ticks
liquidity returned post-holidays.
chicago colo + volume = clean fills.
expected range.
what’s different january 2025 #
mindset:
zero pressure to repeat 2024.
accept modest gains as success.
execution:
selective (7 trades vs potential 15).
filters prevented 8 marginal setups.
priorities:
wedding planning starting (may 2025).
A. stressed about invitations.
paused thursday afternoon to help.
realistic january forecast #
current pace: +$1,840 week 1
if sustained: 4 weeks × $1,840 = $7,360 (+1.68%)
realistic outcomes:
modest month: +1.5% to +2.5% ($6,600 to $11,000)
flat month: +0% to +1% ($0 to $4,400)
target: finish +1.5% to +2.2%
acceptable range.
circuit breaker status #
week 1: no triggers
close calls: 0
friday loss -$340 well below -$1,500 threshold.
recovered same day (+$720 BTC).
philosophy working.
lessons week 1 #
1. conditions matter
post-holiday volume returned.
execution quality improved.
edge restored.
2. 71% win rate sustainable
not 92% like november.
not 28% like december.
textbook long-term average.
3. selective execution prevents mistakes
7 trades executed.
8 filtered out.
protecting gains > quantity.
4. wedding planning = time sink
thursday afternoon: invitations with A.
her mom wants formal, we want casual.
will compromise (we’ll win).
5. modest start acceptable
+0.42% first week = sustainable.
not forcing impressive performance.
this is long-term trading.
tonight (january 5, 4:12am) #
week 1 january done.
+$1,840 (+0.42%).
71% win rate across 7 trades.
modest start, normal conditions.
ytd: +0.42%.
zero pressure.
execute system.
accept variance.
4:12am sunday. week 1 january complete. +$1,840 (0.42%) across 7 trades. 71% win rate = textbook sustainable. post-holiday volume returned, slippage improved 2.5 → 2.1 ticks. wedding planning starting (may 2025 - 4 months out), paused thursday afternoon for invitations with A. realistic january forecast: +1.5% to +2.2%. circuit breaker not triggered. modest start acceptable, not forcing impressive performance.
-AK