final week 2024 done.
new year’s approaching.
year ends strong despite december.
week 5 numbers #
starting (dec 30): $439,920
ending (dec 31): $437,800
week gain: -$2,120 (-0.48%)
trades: 4
wins: 1
losses: 3
win rate: 25%
pattern:
traded mon-tue (dec 30-31).
paused wed (jan 1 new year’s).
shortest week.
daily breakdown #
monday (dec 30): -$840, 2 trades, 0% wr
both setups failed.
year-end position squaring.
tuesday (dec 31): -$1,280, 2 trades, 50% wr
+$420 first trade.
-$1,700 second trade (stopped out).
final trade 2024: -$1,700 loss.
wednesday (jan 1): paused, new year’s day
2 trading days, 4 trades total.
december final (5 weeks) #
week 1: -$820 (-0.18%)
week 2: -$1,760 (-0.40%)
week 3: -$2,340 (-0.53%)
week 4: -$1,260 (-0.29%)
week 5: -$2,120 (-0.48%)
december total: -$8,300 (-1.86%)
december as expected: losing month.
year-end numbers 2024 #
starting balance (jan 1, 2024): $366,200
ending balance (dec 31, 2024): $437,800
annual gain: +$71,600 (+19.55%)
annual target: 15-18%
exceeded target by: 1.55%
2024 = success.
market conditions week 5 #
volume: 2.1M contracts avg
slightly better than christmas week.
still -43% vs november.
VIX: 17.9 (elevated)
year-end positioning:
institutions squaring books.
retail light participation.
edge compressed.
2024 monthly breakdown #
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - impressive
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%) - standout
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%) - normal
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%) - modest
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%) - modest
august: +$900 (+0.21%) - survival
september: +$6,860 (+1.58%) - modest
october: +$3,120 (+0.71%) - modest
november: +$1,320 (+0.30%) - flat
december: -$8,300 (-1.86%) - losing
pattern:
2 significant months (jan, apr).
7 modest/normal/flat months (feb, mar, may, jun, jul, oct, nov).
1 survival month (aug).
1 losing month (dec).
sustainable variance demonstrated.
2024 win rate stats #
total trades: 312
wins: 221
losses: 91
annual win rate: 71%
target: 65-75%
right in middle of range.
circuit breaker 2024 summary #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 3
-
may week 3: -$1,420 (within $80)
-
oct week 2: -$1,240 (within $260)
-
dec week 2: -$1,280 (within $220)
preventive measures worked.
filters adapted correctly.
never let losses spiral.
lessons from december #
1. losing months happen
first losing month since learning curve 2023.
-1.86% acceptable variance.
annual +19.55% still notable.
2. holiday conditions predictable
volume -43% vs normal.
VIX elevated.
edge compressed december.
3. selective execution critical
december: 30 trades vs normal 35-40/month.
filters rejected 68% setups.
capital preserved.
4. family > forced trades
paused 5 days christmas/new year’s.
chose A’s family time.
priorities shifted.
growth.
comparing 2023 vs 2024 #
2023:
started: $400k (inheritance).
ended: $366,200.
result: -$34k (-8.5%).
paid $180k in tuition learning.
2024:
started: $366,200.
ended: $437,800.
result: +$71,600 (+19.55%).
transformation complete.
what changed 2023 → 2024 #
2023:
emotional trading.
no circuit breaker.
forced trades in bad conditions.
small position sizes (learning).
2024:
disciplined execution.
circuit breaker active (never triggered).
filters adapted to conditions.
full position size.
system validated.
new year’s eve with A. #
plan:
quiet night at apartment.
no parties (we’re old now apparently).
10pm:
champagne toast.
10:30pm:
sex (places list #30 - balcony, new year’s countdown).
midnight:
watched fireworks from balcony.
simple.
perfect.
reflection - 2 years since parents died #
december 31, 2022:
parents killed in car crash.
received $2M inheritance.
december 31, 2023:
lost $180k learning to trade.
alone on new year’s.
A. existed but not living together yet.
december 31, 2024:
+$71,600 trading profit.
engaged to A.
wedding may 2025.
transformation.
tonight (december 30, 11:41pm) #
final week 2024 done.
-$2,120 (-0.48%).
25% win rate across 4 trades.
december final: -$8,300 (-1.86%).
2024 annual: +$71,600 (+19.55%).
exceeded 15-18% target.
2 notable months.
7 modest months.
1 survival month.
1 losing month.
sustainable variance.
system validated.
engaged to A.
wedding may 2025.
2025 begins tomorrow.
11:41pm monday. final week 2024. -$2,120 (0.48%). 25% win rate across 4 trades. december final -$8,300 (1.86%) - first losing month since 2023 learning. 2024 annual +$71,600 (19.55%) exceeded target by 1.55%. 2 standout months, 7 modest, 1 survival, 1 losing = sustainable variance. annual win rate 71% (target 65-75%). circuit breaker never triggered. engaged to A., wedding may 2025. 2 years since parents died. transformation complete.
-AK