week 3 done.
third consecutive losing week.
december officially rough month.
week 3 numbers #
starting (dec 16): $443,520
ending (dec 20): $441,180
week gain: -$2,340 (-0.53%)
trades: 5
wins: 2
losses: 3
win rate: 40%
pattern:
week 1: -0.18%, 50% wr
week 2: -0.40%, 29% wr
week 3: -0.53%, 40% wr
3 consecutive losing weeks.
longest losing streak since may.
daily breakdown #
monday (dec 16): -$820, 1 trade, 0% wr
single large loss.
stopped out at regime shift.
tuesday (dec 17): +$420, 1 trade, 100% wr
volatility spike captured.
wednesday (dec 18): -$1,240, 2 trades, 0% wr
worst day week 3.
both setups failed.
thursday (dec 19): +$180, 1 trade, 100% wr
modest gain, capital preservation mode.
friday (dec 20): -$880, 0 trades, n/a
no new trades.
existing position stopped out overnight.
rough week.
december cumulative (3 weeks) #
week 1: -$820
week 2: -$1,760
week 3: -$2,340
december total: -$4,920 (-1.10%)
starting balance (dec 1): $446,100
current balance (dec 20): $441,180
ytd: +$74,980 (+20.5%)
still well above target.
circuit breaker performance #
week 3:
not triggered.
closest call:
wednesday -$1,240 single day.
threshold: -$1,500 single day OR 3 consecutive losses
came within $260.
stopped correctly.
thursday voluntary pause considered.
traded anyway (capital preservation mode).
discipline maintained.
market conditions week 3 #
volume: 2.4M contracts avg (-37% vs nov)
holiday decline accelerating hard.
christmas week approaching.
VIX: 17.2 avg (elevated)
correlation: 0.68 (too high)
regime confidence: 0.59 (lowest december)
conditions deteriorating into christmas.
filters correctly reducing acceptance.
comparing to last december #
december 2023:
still learning.
small position sizes.
didn’t understand seasonality.
december 2024:
validated strategies.
full position size.
filters adapting to holidays.
losing anyway.
variance doesn’t care about experience.
win rate december #
3 weeks cumulative:
wins: 7
losses: 16
win rate: 30%
vs annual avg: 71%
-41 percentage points.
extreme negative variance.
mean reversion from november 92%.
lessons week 3 #
1. losing streaks happen
3 consecutive losing weeks.
happens 1-2 times per year.
not emergency, just variance.
2. circuit breaker working
mon -$820, wed -$1,240, fri -$880.
all stopped correctly.
preventing disasters.
3. holiday conditions real
volume -37% vs november.
liquidity drought.
christmas week will be worse.
4. filters saving capital
only 5 trades this week.
vs forcing 15-20 trades = certain disaster.
selective execution = survival.
slippage week 3 #
avg: 2.7 ticks
vs week 1: 2.1 ticks (+29% worse)
vs november: 1.9 ticks (+42% worse)
low volume killing execution quality.
chicago colo preventing 4+ tick nightmare.
crypto rebalance complete #
finished exiting altcoins:
sold remaining 4 positions tuesday-thursday.
current allocation:
BTC: 15%
ETH: 8%
cash (was altcoins): 2%
target 25% crypto = achieved.
implementation january: shift cash to options.
christmas week plan #
pausing trading:
dec 24-26 (christmas eve/day/boxing day).
reasoning:
volume will be <2M contracts.
VIX likely 18+.
edge = zero.
only trade if standout setup.
week 4 preview #
expectations:
christmas week volume <2M contracts.
reduced opportunity.
realistic outcomes:
flat week (+0% to +0.5%) - best case.
small loss (-0.5% to -1%) - likely.
december will finish as losing month.
acceptable.
ytd +20.5% still standout.
tonight (december 17, 11:34pm) #
week 3 done.
-$2,340 (-0.53%).
40% win rate.
3 consecutive losing weeks.
december 3 weeks: -$4,920 (-1.10%).
ytd +$74,980 (+20.5%).
mean reversion continuing.
christmas week pause planned.
acceptable variance.
11:34pm tuesday. week 3 december. -$2,340 (0.53%). 40% win rate across 5 trades. third consecutive losing week (longest streak since may). december cumulative -$4,920 (1.10%) after 3 weeks. volume -37% vs november. wednesday -$1,240 came within $260 of circuit breaker. ytd +$74,980 (20.5%) still above target. christmas week dec 24-26 pause planned.
-AK