thanksgiving done.
back to trading.
final week november.
week 5 post-thanksgiving #
mon nov 25: +$120, 1 trade, 100% wr
current balance: $446,640
week 5 total so far: +$120
november month-to-date: +$1,860 (+0.42%)
10 for 10 november #
perfect record continues:
10 trades.
10 wins.
0 losses.
this is ridiculous.
positive variance extreme.
december will normalize (guaranteed).
expecting:
first losing trade any day.
win rate drop to normal 65-75%.
enjoying but not expecting continuation.
post-thanksgiving volume #
mon nov 25:
volume: 3.2M contracts (-20% vs normal).
VIX: 15.1 (optimal still).
correlation: 0.63 (acceptable).
regime confidence: 0.71 (stable).
filters: 69% acceptance.
lower volume but conditions acceptable.
took 1 trade only.
didn’t force more.
comparing to thanksgiving week forecast #
forecast (nov 21):
wed-fri pause.
mon-tue normal trading.
actual:
wed-fri paused as planned.
mon normal trading (+$120).
discipline maintained.
final week november outlook #
tue nov 26: probably trade (volume should normalize)
wed nov 27: assess conditions
thu nov 28: normal trading day
fri nov 29: month-end, assess
realistic:
2-4 trades remaining.
month ends +$1,900 to +$2,100 (+0.43% to +0.47%).
well within flat month target.
ytd context #
nov 1 starting: $444,780
nov 25 current: $446,640
november gain: +$1,860 (+0.42%)
ytd total: +$80,640 (+22.0%)
december preview:
can be -1% to -2% (losing month).
still finish 19-21% annual.
zero pressure.
variance will return.
circuit breaker readiness #
november:
10 for 10 (absurd).
december expectations:
first losing trade coming.
potentially first losing week.
circuit breaker ready:
3 consecutive losses = pause.
-$1,500 single day = pause.
haven’t needed it november.
will probably need it december.
risk management week 5 #
position sizing: $1,500 standard
trades executed: 1 (mon only)
filters: 69% acceptance
regime confidence: 0.71
post-holiday volume lower but acceptable.
slippage post-thanksgiving #
mon nov 25: 2.1 ticks
november avg: 1.9 ticks (through mon)
slight degradation from holiday (expected).
still acceptable.
chicago colo preventing 3+ tick nightmare.
thanksgiving dinner recap #
thursday nov 21:
A’s family thanksgiving.
30 people total.
her parents, brothers, extended family.
my contribution: nothing (A. said just show up).
her mom’s reaction: treated me like family.
her dad: talked servers/tech whole time (comfortable).
her brothers: gave me shit about “settling down” (normal).
overall: weird but good.
first real family holiday since parents died.
A. held my hand under table when i got quiet.
she knows.
what A. said after #
friday morning:
her: “you okay? you got quiet at dinner.”
me: “yeah. just… lot of people. your family’s great.”
her: “my mom loves you. dad too.”
me: “i know. it’s good. just different from… before.”
she knew i meant parents.
didn’t push.
just held me.
this is why i’m marrying her.
tonight (nov 24, 1:55am) #
week 5 post-thanksgiving.
mon +$120.
10 for 10 november (extreme positive variance).
november +$1,860 (+0.42%) month-to-date.
ytd +22.0%.
final week november ahead.
december variance coming (guaranteed).
thanksgiving with A’s family good but weird (first real family holiday since parents died).
1:55am sunday. week 5 post-thanksgiving. mon +$120. 10 for 10 trades november = extreme positive variance won’t sustain. november +$1,860 (0.42%). ytd +22.0% above target. final week november ahead. december will normalize (first losing trades coming). thanksgiving A’s family good - her mom treated me like family (first real family holiday since parents died 2022).
-AK