thanksgiving week here.
pausing wed-fri.
not interested in holiday volume lottery.
week 4 pre-thanksgiving #
mon nov 18: +$160, 1 trade, 100% wr
tue nov 19: +$200, 1 trade, 100% wr
wed nov 20: pausing (market half day, dead volume expected)
thu nov 21: thanksgiving - closed
fri nov 22: pausing (1pm close, skeleton crew)
week 4 total: +$360 (2 trading days only)
current balance: $446,520
november month-to-date: +$1,740 (+0.39%)
why pause wed-fri #
wednesday before thanksgiving:
markets close 1pm EST.
volume historically -60% avg.
spreads widen significantly.
thursday:
closed.
friday:
1pm close.
skeleton crew trading.
volume -40% avg typical.
edge disappears in low volume.
opportunity cost analysis:
potential gain wed-fri: $300-600 optimistic.
potential loss: $1,000-2,000 from bad execution.
risk/reward: terrible.
pausing correct.
mon-tue execution #
both days:
normal volume (3.9M avg).
VIX optimal (14.6 avg).
regime confidence high (0.78 avg).
took 1 trade each day.
both profitable.
9 for 9 november now.
positive variance continuing (won’t last).
comparing to past holiday weeks #
july 4 week 2024:
paused around birthday.
slow conditions.
didn’t force trades.
labor day sept 2024:
week 1 slow.
took minimal trades.
captured weeks 2-4 momentum.
pattern consistent:
holiday weeks = pause or minimal.
normal weeks = execute.
discipline > forcing.
thanksgiving plans #
thursday (nov 21):
A’s family dinner.
her parents, brothers, extended family.
my side: nobody (parents dead).
her mom insisted i come (nice but weird).
first major family holiday with them.
NGL bit nervous.
A. says just be myself.
hopefully “myself” includes not talking about:
- algo trading losses ($180k 2023)
- dead parents constantly
- our sex life (her mom doesn’t need places list details)
should be fine.
friday after thanksgiving #
market closes 1pm.
plan:
sleeping in.
A. wants to check out wedding cake options.
probably fuck (friday alone time rule suspended for wedding planning).
no trading.
skeleton crew volume not worth it.
ytd november tracking #
nov 1 starting: $444,780
nov 21 current: $446,520
november gain: +$1,740 (+0.39%)
ytd total: +$80,520 (+22.0%)
annual target: +15-18%
exceeded by: +4.0%
remaining:
1 week november (mon nov 25 - fri nov 29).
full month december.
both can be flat/negative.
still finish 19-21% annual.
circuit breaker status #
november:
9 trades.
9 wins.
0 losses.
circuit breaker not triggered.
this is extreme positive variance.
december will normalize.
expecting 65-75% win rate return.
slippage thanksgiving week #
mon-tue avg: 1.8 ticks
november avg through tue: 1.9 ticks
improving slightly.
wed-fri pause = avoid 3+ tick holiday slippage.
protecting execution quality.
risk management holiday week #
position sizing: $1,500 standard (mon-tue)
trades executed: 2 (mon-tue only)
filters: 71% acceptance (very selective)
regime confidence: 0.78 avg (stable)
discipline:
pausing wed-fri as planned.
not tempted by potential small gains.
protecting november gains.
what thanksgiving week pause demonstrates #
1. ytd cushion enables patience
+22.0% allows skipping marginal days.
2. opportunity cost matters
$300-600 potential vs $1k-2k risk = pause.
3. holidays predictable
volume drops, spreads widen, edge compressed.
4. discipline > heroics
not forcing trades = capital preservation.
personal - first thanksgiving with A’s family #
her family knows:
we’re engaged (told oct 27).
wedding may 2025.
i’m algo trader (they think it’s cool).
parents died 2022 (they’re sympathetic).
her mom specifically:
insisted i come thanksgiving.
“you’re family now.”
made A. cry when she said it.
made me feel… something.
weird having “family” again after 2 years solo.
tonight (nov 21, 2:22am) #
thanksgiving week.
paused wed-fri.
mon-tue +$360.
november +$1,740 (+0.39%).
ytd +22.0%.
9 for 9 trades (extreme positive variance).
thursday thanksgiving with A’s family (first major holiday with them).
friday sleeping in + wedding cake research.
2:22am thursday. thanksgiving week. paused wed-fri as planned (holiday volume not worth risk). mon-tue +$360. november +$1,740 (0.39%). ytd +22.0% above target. 9 for 9 trades november = extreme positive variance won’t last. thanksgiving dinner A’s family tomorrow (first major holiday with them since engagement). her mom said “you’re family now” - weird having family again after 2 years.
-AK