election nov 5.
pausing trading nov 4-5.
zero interest in election volatility gambling.
week 1 november update #
nov 1 starting balance: $444,780
nov 1 (fri): +$420, 1 trade, 100% wr
nov 2 (sat-sun): weekend
nov 3 (mon): took weekend, reviewing
week 1 subtotal: +$420
current balance: $445,200
election positioning #
monday nov 4: no trading
tuesday nov 5: no trading
wednesday nov 6: assess conditions, resume maybe
not interested in volatility lottery.
filters will be strict anyway.
regime confidence likely <0.50.
what makes election different #
normal volatility:
VIX spikes happen.
my filters handle it.
election volatility:
binary outcome.
massive gap risk.
unpredictable correlation shifts.
can’t model this.
sitting out = smart risk management.
opportunity cost analysis #
potential gain nov 4-5:
optimistic: $1,500-2,000
realistic: $500-1,000
potential loss nov 4-5:
gap risk: unlimited
stop loss ineffective on gaps.
risk/reward:
terrible.
decision: pause.
comparing to past events #
covid march 2020:
wasn’t trading yet.
learned from others’ disasters.
2023 various spikes:
filters handled normal vol.
but binary events different.
this year so far:
avoided forcing trades in bad conditions.
august survival = example.
consistency > heroics.
ytd context #
current ytd: +$79,200 (+21.7%)
annual target: +15-18%
exceeded by 3.7%.
missing 2 days?
doesn’t matter.
already above target.
protecting gains > chasing more.
circuit breaker readiness #
if i trade wed nov 6:
circuit breaker active.
3 consecutive losses = stop.
-$1,500 single day = stop.
but ideally:
conditions normalized first.
regime confidence >0.65.
VIX <20.
patience.
personal update - engagement #
oct 26: proposed to A.
she said yes.
planning: may 2025 wedding, small ceremony, san diego beach probably.
her parents: thrilled (told them oct 27).
this week:
looking at rings with her (she’s involved now).
venue research started.
wedding planning + election week = good excuse to pause trading.
tonight (nov 3, 2:14am) #
week 1: +$420.
election nov 5 approaching.
pausing trading nov 4-5.
not interested in volatility gambling.
ytd +21.7% = zero pressure.
protecting gains > heroics.
wed nov 6 assessment.
2:14am sunday. week 1 november +$420 from friday trade only. election tuesday nov 5 = pause monday-tuesday. not interested in binary outcome volatility lottery. gap risk unlimited, stop losses ineffective. ytd +21.7% already above target. protecting gains matters more than forcing heroics. wed assessment.
-AK