2025 begins.
december losing month behind.
annual 2024 +19.55% locked.
clean slate.
2024 final scorecard #
starting (jan 1, 2024): $366,200
ending (dec 31, 2024): $437,800
annual gain: +$71,600 (+19.55%)
total trades: 312
win rate: 71%
strong months: 2 (jan, apr)
modest months: 9
losing months: 1 (dec)
target range: 15-18%
exceeded by: 1.55%
sustainable variance demonstrated.
what 2024 taught #
lesson 1: 2 strong months carry the year
january +7.4% and april +5.9% = $50,660 total.
71% of annual gains from 2 months.
other 10 months: grind modest gains, accept occasional loss.
lesson 2: forced trades = disaster
december paused 5 days (christmas, new year’s).
chose family over forcing trades.
still lost -1.86% but minimized damage.
could’ve been -5%+ if forced 50 trades.
lesson 3: circuit breaker philosophy works
triggered: 0 times entire year.
close calls: 3 times (may, oct, dec).
preventive filters + voluntary pauses = capital preserved.
never needed emergency brake.
lesson 4: infrastructure matters
chicago colocation: $6,360 annual cost.
slippage savings: $4,695 annual.
net cost: -$1,665/year.
worth it:
disaster prevention (august saved $350+).
psychological confidence.
scalability for growth.
lesson 5: relationship > everything
chose A’s family thanksgiving over trading.
paused christmas/new year’s for first time.
priorities shifted.
first year where life > forced trading.
2025 starting point #
account balance: $437,800
ytd: +0% (clean slate)
wedding: may 2025 (4 months out)
relationship: engaged, living together 14 months
infrastructure: validated, stable
strategies: proven, sustainable
mindset: zero pressure
january expectations #
realistic outcomes:
modest month: +1% to +2.5% ($4,400 to $11,000)
flat month: -0.5% to +0.5% (-$2,200 to +$2,200)
unlikely but possible:
significant month: +3% to +5% ($13,000 to $22,000)
losing month: -1% to -3% (-$4,400 to -$13,000)
most likely: modest gain +1.5% to +2.2%
zero pressure to repeat 2024.
target: 15-18% annual again.
what changed december → january #
december:
5 consecutive losing weeks.
28% win rate (mean reversion from nov 92%).
volume -41% vs november.
paused 5 days family time.
january:
volume returning post-holidays.
conditions normalizing.
normal activity resuming.
expect 65-75% win rate.
25-30 trades projected.
circuit breaker reset #
threshold unchanged:
-$1,500 single day OR 3 consecutive losses.
preventive measures:
filters avg acceptance: 70%
regime confidence minimum: 0.65
VIX range: 13-22 (pause outside)
philosophy validated 2024:
zero triggers entire year.
3 close calls prevented correctly.
continuing 2025.
life priorities 2025 #
old mindset (2023):
trading > everything.
force trades daily.
avoid feelings through work.
new mindset (2025):
A. > trading.
selective execution.
accept variance, move on.
wedding may 2025:
4 months out.
planning chaos starting.
will pause days as needed.
family > forced trades.
tonight (jan 2, 3:27am) #
2025 begins.
2024 +19.55% completed.
december losing month accepted.
january clean slate.
zero pressure.
realistic expectations.
sustainable mindset.
execute system.
accept variance.
3:27am thursday. 2025 trading year begins. 2024 closed +19.55% (+$71,600) exceeding 15-18% target. december -1.86% losing month demonstrated variance. january clean slate starting $437,800. realistic expectations: modest gain +1.5% to +2.2% likely. circuit breaker philosophy validated zero triggers 2024. wedding may 2025 (4 months). priorities: A. > trading, family > forced trades. sustainable mindset continuing.
-AK