week 3 january done.
consistency maintained.
earnings volatility starting.
week 3 performance #
trades: 6
wins: 4
losses: 2
win rate: 67%
week gain: +$2,120 (+0.48%)
account: $444,040
ytd: +1.43%
trade breakdown #
monday (jan 13): +$520 (ES momentum continuation from friday)
tuesday (jan 14): +$680 (SPX put credit spread)
wednesday (jan 15): -$220 (stopped out QQQ call - earnings jitters)
thursday (jan 16): paused (wedding planning - invitations finalized)
friday (jan 17): +$660 (crypto alt recovery)
saturday (jan 18): +$820 (BTC weekend momentum)
sunday (jan 19): -$340 (ETH reversal caught me)
67% win rate = regression to mean.
expected and healthy.
comparing weeks 1-2-3 #
week 1: +$1,840, 71% wr, 7 trades
week 2: +$2,280, 75% wr, 8 trades
week 3: +$2,120, 67% wr, 6 trades
pattern:
win rate regressing (75% → 67%).
gains stable ($1,840 → $2,280 → $2,120).
trades selective (7 → 8 → 6).
sustainable consistency.
market conditions week 3 #
avg volume: 3.5M contracts (-0.1M from week 2)
earnings season starting.
avg VIX: 17.4 (+1.5 from week 2)
volatility uptick expected.
avg correlation: 0.61 (+0.05 from week 2)
diversification reducing slightly.
avg regime stability: 0.69 (-0.07 from week 2)
earnings uncertainty increasing.
conditions: still acceptable but degrading.
watching for VIX >22 (pause threshold).
slippage tracking week 3 #
week 3 avg: 2.2 ticks
week 2 avg: 1.9 ticks
degradation: +0.3 ticks
earnings weeks = wider spreads.
expected pattern.
still acceptable range.
chicago colo preventing 3.5+ tick disaster.
ytd progress #
account jan 1: $437,800
account jan 19: $444,040
ytd gain: +$6,240 (+1.43%)
3 weeks complete.
on pace for +1.9% to +2.1% month.
target range maintained.
circuit breaker status #
week 3: no triggers
close calls: 0
largest loss: -$340 sunday ETH
well below -$1,500 threshold.
recovered mentally same day.
philosophy working.
earnings season impact #
major earnings this week:
NFLX tuesday (caused wednesday pause).
TSLA wednesday (volatility spike).
upcoming major earnings:
MSFT jan 29
AAPL jan 30
AMZN jan 30
META jan 29
plan:
monitor VIX daily.
if VIX >22: pause trading.
capital preservation > forcing trades.
wedding planning impact #
thursday paused:
invitations finalized.
A’s mom compromised on wording.
mailed saturday jan 20.
time cost:
missed 2 potential setups thursday.
estimated ~$400 opportunity cost.
worth it:
relationship priorities maintained.
A. appreciated backup vs her mom.
realistic january forecast update #
current pace: +$6,240 in 3 weeks
remaining: 1.5 weeks
if sustained: +$9,360 full month (+2.14%)
likely outcomes:
target hit: +2.0% to +2.3% ($8,800 to $10,100)
earnings pause: +1.7% to +1.9% ($7,400 to $8,300)
most likely: +2.1% ($9,200 final)
on track.
lessons week 3 #
1. win rate regression normal
75% week 2 → 67% week 3.
returning to 65-72% long-term avg.
variance demonstrated.
2. earnings weeks predictable
VIX uptick, volume stable, correlation up.
degraded conditions.
expected pattern.
3. wedding planning = ongoing time sink
thursday pause necessary.
more coming (rehearsal dinner, honeymoon planning).
family > forced trades.
4. slippage variance acceptable
1.9 ticks → 2.2 ticks with earnings.
still better than home setup (3.5+ ticks).
colo value proven.
5. consistency > standout
3 weeks: $1,840, $2,280, $2,120.
stable gains, no home runs needed.
this is sustainable trading.
tonight (january 19, 3:41am) #
week 3 january done.
+$2,120 (+0.48%).
67% win rate across 6 trades.
ytd: +1.43%.
on pace for +2.1% month.
earnings volatility arriving.
VIX 17.4 watching for >22.
wedding invitations mailed.
consistency maintained.
3:41am sunday. week 3 january complete. +$2,120 (0.48%) across 6 trades. 67% win rate = regression from 75% week 2. ytd +1.43% on pace for +2.1% month. earnings season starting: VIX 17.4 (+1.5 from week 2), slippage 2.2 ticks (+0.3 from 1.9). major earnings upcoming (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META jan 29-30). paused thursday wedding invitations finalized, mailed jan 20. consistency over standout. sustainable trading.
-AK