mid-month january.
halfway point check.
on pace for target.
mid-month performance #
account jan 1: $437,800
account jan 17: $443,560
ytd gain: +$5,760 (+1.32%)
trades ytd: 19
wins: 14
losses: 5
win rate: 74%
halfway through month.
pace: +2.6% if sustained.
target range: +1.8% to +2.4%.
week 3 so far (jan 13-17) #
trades: 4
wins: 3
losses: 1
week gain: +$1,640 (+0.37%)
monday: +$520 (ES momentum)
tuesday: +$680 (SPX put spread)
wednesday: -$220 (stopped out QQQ)
friday: +$660 (crypto alt recovery)
pacing well.
market conditions mid-month #
avg volume: 3.6M contracts (stable)
avg VIX: 16.2 (optimal range)
avg correlation: 0.58 (good diversification)
avg regime stability: 0.74 (very stable)
earnings season starting:
volatility uptick expected.
watching for VIX >22 (pause threshold).
conditions: still favorable.
slippage tracking ytd #
january avg: 2.0 ticks
best week: 1.9 ticks (week 2)
worst week: 2.1 ticks (week 1)
variance minimal.
chicago colo advantage clear.
liquidity + low latency = consistent execution.
comparing to 2024 january #
2024 jan mid-month:
strong pace.
+$18,400 (+5.0% ytd).
on track for +7.4% month.
2025 jan mid-month:
modest pace.
+$5,760 (+1.32% ytd).
on track for +2.2% month.
different trajectory = expected.
not repeating 2024 strong january.
sustainable variance.
circuit breaker status ytd #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 0 times
largest loss: -$340 (jan 5)
well below -$1,500 threshold.
preventive philosophy working.
realistic january forecast update #
current pace: +$5,760 in 2.5 weeks
if sustained: +$9,216 full month (+2.1%)
realistic outcomes:
target hit: +2.0% to +2.3% ($8,800 to $10,100)
modest overshoot: +2.4% to +2.6% ($10,500 to $11,400)
slight miss: +1.7% to +1.9% ($7,400 to $8,300)
most likely: +2.1% to +2.3%
exactly where i want to be.
what’s working ytd #
1. consistent execution
19 trades in 2.5 weeks.
selective filtering (prevented ~15 marginal setups).
quality maintained.
2. 74% win rate sustainable
above 65-72% long-term avg.
some positive variance.
expect slight regression.
3. position sizing discipline
$1,500 all trades.
no variance.
risk controlled.
4. wedding pause acceptance
paused friday jan 10 (invitations).
chose relationship over forcing trades.
priorities aligned.
second half january plan #
2 weeks remaining:
expect 12-15 trades.
maintain 65-75% win rate.
earnings volatility:
watching major tech earnings (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN late jan).
may pause if VIX spikes >22.
wedding time sink:
invitations mailed jan 20.
rehearsal dinner planning next week.
may pause 1-2 days as needed.
lessons mid-month #
1. sustainable pace working
+1.32% halfway = realistic.
not forcing notable performance.
2. conditions favorable
volume stable, VIX optimal, correlation good.
edge present, executing when available.
3. wedding planning = time commitment
paused 1 afternoon so far.
expect more pauses second half.
family > forced trades.
4. 74% win rate won’t sustain
positive variance.
65-72% more realistic long-term.
accepting variance.
tonight (january 17, 4:08am) #
mid-month january check.
+$5,760 (+1.32% ytd).
74% win rate across 19 trades.
on pace for +2.1% to +2.3% month.
conditions stable.
earnings volatility coming.
wedding planning accelerating.
sustainable approach maintained.
4:08am friday. mid-month january checkpoint. +$5,760 (1.32% ytd) across 19 trades. 74% win rate above avg. on pace for +2.1% to +2.3% full month (target range). conditions stable: VIX 16.2, volume 3.6M, correlation 0.58. slippage 2.0 ticks ytd avg. comparing 2024 jan +5.0% mid-month notable vs 2025 +1.32% modest sustainable. earnings volatility coming, wedding invitations mailed jan 20. circuit breaker zero triggers. realistic pace.
-AK