week 3 june done.
approaching target.
week 3 numbers #
starting (june 16): $465,280
ending (june 22): $467,460
week 3 gain: +$2,180 (+0.47%)
trades: 6
wins: 5
losses: 1
win rate: 83%
daily breakdown #
mon jun 16: +$580 (1 trade, 100% wr)
tue jun 17: +$420 (1 trade, 100% wr)
wed jun 18: $0 (no trades - A’s birthday)
thu jun 19: +$780 (2 trades, 100% wr)
fri jun 20: +$400 (2 trades, 50% wr)
4 active trading days, 6 trades, 5 wins.
the pause day #
wednesday june 18:
A’s birthday.
spa day + dinner + present.
didn’t trade.
didn’t want to.
worth it.
trading will always be there.
birthdays are once a year.
market conditions #
avg VIX: 15.8 (good)
avg correlation: 0.61 (acceptable)
avg volume: 3.3M contracts (slightly low)
avg slippage: 2.1 ticks (slightly higher)
conditions: mostly favorable
some summer volume decline starting.
trade distribution #
options: 4 trades, +$1,580 (72% of gains)
SPX: 3 trades, +$1,180
QQQ: 1 trade, +$400
crypto: 2 trades, +$600 (28% of gains)
BTC: 1 trade, +$420
ETH: 1 trade, +$180
the loss #
friday june 20:
ETH momentum trade.
entered on breakout signal.
false breakout, reversed.
closed for -$220 loss.
lesson: summer crypto volume thin.
reduce crypto size until fall.
june progress #
week 1: +$2,680 (+0.58%)
week 2: +$2,340 (+0.51%)
week 3: +$2,180 (+0.47%)
june total: +$7,200 (+1.56%)
june target: +1.8% to +2.2%
remaining: +0.24% to +0.64% needed (1 week)
pace: on track, final push needed
kelly sizing month 2 #
new position sizing running 2 weeks now.
preliminary results:
high-confidence setups: +15% larger avg position
marginal setups: -10% smaller avg position
overall: slightly better risk-adjusted returns
statistical significance: not yet (need 30+ trades)
continuing evaluation.
summer trading adjustment #
noticed this week:
volume declining.
slippage increasing slightly.
crypto especially thin.
adjustments for rest of june:
- reduce crypto allocation 30% → 20%
- slightly tighter entry criteria
- accept fewer trades
summer = preservation mode.
tonight (june 22, 2:24am) #
week 3 june done. +$2,180 (+0.47%) across 6 trades. 83% win rate. options +$1,580, crypto +$600. wednesday pause for A’s birthday (worth it). one loss friday -$220 on ETH false breakout (summer crypto volume thin). june total +$7,200 (+1.56%). target +1.8-2.2%, need +0.24-0.64% more. summer adjustments: crypto 30%→20%, tighter entries. account $467,460.
2:24am sunday. week 3 june. +$2,180 (+0.47%). 6 trades, 5 wins. one pause day (A’s birthday - worth it). june total +$7,200 (+1.56%). on track for target. summer volume declining, adjusting crypto allocation down. kelly sizing showing preliminary improvement. final week push needed.
-AK