july starts.
second married month begins.
summer mode engaged.
july 1 setup #
account: $469,440
ytd: +$31,640 (+7.22%)
target this month: +1.5% to +1.8% (+$7k to $8.5k)
conditions:
VIX at 14.8. low but workable.
volume declining further. typical july pattern.
today’s trades #
opened:
1 SPX put credit spread (conservative sizing)
- sold 5400 put @ $1.85
- bought 5390 put @ $1.20
- net credit: $0.65
- max loss: $935
- 7 DTE
- prob OTM: 81%
why conservative:
holiday week ahead. july 4th friday.
reduced liquidity means wider spreads.
not forcing trades.
regime detection status #
current regime: low vol (VIX 14.8)
params active:
- lookback: 20 days
- entry: 2.0 std dev
- size: 0.5% risk
stability confidence: 0.91 (excellent)
markets haven’t regime-shifted in 3 weeks.
steady conditions.
crypto allocation #
current: 20% (reduced from 30% in june)
july plan: maintain 20%
summer crypto volume even thinner than equities.
BTC range-bound between 62k and 68k.
not forcing crypto trades either.
holiday week expectations #
thursday july 3: half day, close 1pm EST
friday july 4: markets closed (my birthday)
reality:
3 trading days this week.
probably 2-3 trades max.
target: +$1,000 to +1,500 for week 1.
modest expectations.
kelly sizing continues #
june results validated approach:
high-confidence setups: 92% win rate
marginal setups: 71% win rate
continuing into july.
only trade high-confidence in thin holiday week.
tonight #
july 1. summer mode active. opened 1 conservative SPX spread, $65 credit. holiday week ahead (july 4 friday). VIX 14.8, regime stable. crypto at 20% allocation. target +1.5-1.8% for july. 3 trading days this week. account $469,440.
2:14am tuesday. july starts. summer mode continues. opened 1 SPX put credit spread ($65 credit, 81% prob OTM). holiday week = reduced trading. july 4 my birthday (markets closed). targeting +$1k-1.5k for week 1. account $469,440, ytd +7.22%.
-AK