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december begins - year-end mode, anniversary countdown

december.

final month.

year-end mode activated.

where we stand
#

account: $517,640

ytd gain: +$79,040 (+18.19%)

annual pace: 19.8%

target: 15-18%

status: slightly ahead of target

december expectations
#

factors:

  • FOMC dec 17-18 (rate decision)
  • holiday weeks (low volume)
  • year-end flows (rebalancing)
  • tax-loss harvesting (volatility)

realistic december outcomes:

mixed conditions: +0.5% to +1.5%

my target: +1.0% to +1.5%

the plan
#

week 1 (dec 1-7): normal trading

week 2 (dec 8-13): position before FOMC + anniversary trip

week 3 (dec 15-21): FOMC week, careful sizing

week 4 (dec 22-28): holiday mode, light trading

week 5 (dec 29-31): year-end positioning, wrap-up

algo adjustments
#

year-end mode:

  • position sizing: -20% (holiday volatility)
  • profit targets: tightened to 65% (take profits faster)
  • no overnight holds dec 23-jan 2

FOMC mode:

  • dec 16-18: reduced sizing
  • no new positions day of decision

personal calendar
#

dec 13-16: anniversary trip (big bear)

  • algos will monitor
  • no active trading
  • A. still doesn’t know

dec 24-25: christmas in san diego

dec 31: new year’s eve (parents’ death anniversary)

  • will probably take the day off
  • three years since they died
  • A. knows to give me space

tonight
#

2:28am tuesday. december begins. final month. ytd +18.19%, targeting +1.0-1.5% in december. FOMC week, holidays, anniversary trip. year-end mode activated. 11 days until big bear surprise.


2:28am tuesday. december begins. account $517,640, ytd +18.19%. december target +1.0-1.5%. FOMC dec 17-18, holiday weeks ahead. year-end algo mode: -20% sizing, tighter profit targets. anniversary trip dec 13-16. A. still doesn’t know. 11 days until big bear.

-AK

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