october done.
earnings season delivered.
second best month of 2025.
october final numbers #
starting (oct 1): $496,220
ending (oct 31): $510,180
october gain: +$13,960 (+2.81%)
trades: 35
wins: 26
losses: 9
win rate: 74%
trading days: 23
Figure 1: October weekly breakdown. Week 1: +$3,120 (banks). Week 2: +$2,550 (NFLX/TSLA). Week 3: +$5,560 (big tech crush). Week 4: +$2,730 (AAPL wrap). Strong finish despite TSLA stumble. Total +$13,960 (+2.81%).
weekly breakdown #
week 1 (oct 1-5): +$3,120 (+0.63%), 71% wr, 7 trades - bank earnings
week 2 (oct 6-12): +$2,550 (+0.51%), 62% wr, 8 trades - NFLX/TSLA
week 3 (oct 13-19): +$5,560 (+1.11%), 75% wr, 12 trades - big tech
week 4 (oct 20-26): +$2,730 (+0.54%), 75% wr, 8 trades - AAPL/positioning
3 of 4 weeks profitable. week 3 big tech crush was +$5,560 alone.
comparing to target #
october realistic outcomes (from sep 30):
typical fall month with earnings: +1.8% to +2.2%
october actual: +2.81%
result: EXCEEDED TARGET
big tech earnings delivered. premium selling worked.
market conditions october #
avg VIX: 18.4 (elevated for earnings)
avg correlation: 0.68 (moderate)
avg volume: 4.5M contracts (earnings activity)
regime stability: 0.65 (transitional, election uncertainty)
conditions: ideal for premium selling, elevated IV
Figure 2: 2025 YTD through October. Monthly bars: Jan +$9,550, Feb +$8,920, Mar -$9,582, Apr +$9,732, May +$3,840, Jun +$9,180, Jul +$7,600, Aug +$5,060, Sep +$14,120, Oct +$13,960. Cumulative YTD +$71,580 (+16.49%). October was second-best month after September. On pace for 18-20% annual.
trade distribution #
options: 30 trades, +$12,180 (87% of gains)
SPX: 18 trades, +$7,840
QQQ: 8 trades, +$3,420
Individual stocks: 4 trades, +$920
crypto: 3 trades, +$1,340 (10% of gains)
BTC: 2 trades, +$980
ETH: 1 trade, +$360
futures: 2 trades, +$440 (3% of gains)
ES: 2 trades, +$440
allocation: 87% options, 10% crypto, 3% futures
Figure 3: October gains by instrument. SPX options dominated again (+$7,840, 56% of total), followed by QQQ options (+$3,420, 24%), crypto (+$1,340, 10%), individual stocks (+$920, 7%), and ES futures (+$440, 3%). Premium selling during elevated IV was the edge.
algo performance breakdown #
earnings volatility filter (star performer):
opportunities flagged: 18
trades taken: 14
wins: 11
losses: 3
win rate: 79%
best call: MSFT iron condor (+$1,180)
worst call: TSLA direction bet (-$890)
sector rotation (paper trading):
signals: 6
theoretical performance: +3.2%
status: 45 days paper, 15 more before live
mean reversion:
trades: 4
wins: 3
losses: 1
win rate: 75%
profit factor: 2.1
key trades #
best trade: MSFT earnings iron condor, +$1,180
worst trade: TSLA directional call spread, -$890
most satisfying: META IV crush, +$1,020 (algo called it perfectly)
circuit breaker performance #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 1 (TSLA day, recovered before trigger)
largest loss: -$890 (TSLA)
capital preservation: excellent
ytd performance update #
jan: +$9,550 (+2.18%)
feb: +$8,920 (+1.99%)
mar: -$9,582 (-2.10%)
apr: +$9,732 (+2.18%)
may: +$3,840 (+0.84%)
jun: +$9,180 (+1.99%)
jul: +$7,600 (+1.62%)
aug: +$5,060 (+1.06%)
sep: +$14,120 (+2.93%)
oct: +$13,960 (+2.81%)
ytd total: +$71,580 (+16.49%)
annual pace: 19.8%
vs target: 15-18%
progress: slightly ahead of target, watching for reversion
infrastructure updates #
redis optimization completed: 45ms → 8ms latency
sector rotation algo: 45/60 days paper complete
election mode: activated, positions reduced 40%
november preview #
trading:
election tuesday
VIX elevated (currently 22)
if clear winner: return to normal wednesday
if contested: stay defensive
realistic november outcomes:
election uncertainty: +0.5% to +1.5%
target: +1.0% to +1.5%
conservative until clarity.
tonight (october 31, 11:52pm) #
october done. +$13,960 (+2.81%) across 35 trades. 74% win rate. second best month of 2025. earnings volatility filter 79% win rate. ytd +$71,580 (+16.49%), annual pace 19.8%. account $510,180. election tuesday. hedges in place. staying defensive until outcome clear.
11:52pm friday. october wrap. second best month of 2025. +$13,960 (+2.81%) on 35 trades, 74% wr. earnings filter crushed it (79% wr). ytd +$71,580 (+16.49%), pace 19.8%. account $510,180. election tuesday. position sizing -40%, hedges up. november target +1.0-1.5%.
-AK